Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Update - 24 Apr 06

TXN – New Play

The stochastics and RSI showed that the stock turned bearish. Bought TXN Jun 35 Put.
Target 1 = $32.91 (also Fibonacci Level of 38.2%)
Target 2 = $30.75 (Fib Level of 61.8%)

GM – New Play
GM seems to be trading in a range. Played Bear Call Spread (in-the-money) May 20 and 22.50 Call. Will close my sold leg when the stock is around $19.20.

RMBS – New Play



Read from Briefing.com that the trading of RMBS is halted. Then the news came:

13:06
RMBS Rambus: Case will be dragged further before there is a resolution - BWS Financial (38.33 -0.26) -Update-

BWS Financial notes the jury, in the RMBS v Hynix Semi case, found that the DRAM patents in question are in valid and that Hynix should pay RMBS $306.4 mln in damages. The damages are a little higher than the $250 million they were expecting, but do not change their view on the proceedings. The firm had been expecting RMBS to win the case and set precedence for the remaining trials that RMBS is involved in. They would expect Hynix to appeal the ruling to either reverse the ruling or reduce the penalty. The firm says the news is positive for RMBS, as it moves the co closer to finalizing the patent cases they are involved in. They currently est that damages from all the suits brought by RMBS, including the Hynix award, would total approximately $1.5 bln. Some ests are calling for as much as $2 bln. The firm says this is a great sum for a co like RMBS who is expected to generated revs of approximately $190 mln in 2006, but the co receiving this amount would be over the next three to five years. They find that the stock already reflects the news from Hynix and that there would be selling on the news now that the award is known. They underscore that by Hynix losing the case today does not mean that all legal avenues are closed for the co. They think that the case will be dragged further before there is a resolution.

Also heard from CNBC that one analyst said that the fair value of the stock is $38 (est. damages from all lawsuits included).
The stock gapped up to more than $7 when trading commenced at 14:05. I expected the stock to yo-yo but should drop thereafter as it seems the market had somewhat priced-in the news. I bought May $45 Put for $4.10. (On hindsight, should have just played credit spread - time value depreciate very fast that day). Let see what happens today.

Target = $36.15
Stop Loss = $46.99



DELL – The stock did well. It extended its loss yesterday. My May $27.50 Put appreciated around 170%.

SNDK – The stock also did well. It extended its loss again yesterday.

AMD - Closed my Jul $32.50 Call with a small profit. I am not comfortable with this stock (nothing to do with technical analysis).


PALM – Closed my May $22.50 Put for a small profit before the stock rise up further. An analyst upgraded the stock today. Anyway, the stock does not seem to show much weakness over the past few days.

XSNX - uneventful.

- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)

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