Jewish Holidays over the next few weeks

Take note of the "No work permitted" during some of the Jewish holidays over the next few weeks. Market volume can be expected to drop significantly on that day.

Yom Kippur No work is permitted.	Sunset of September 27 through nightfall of September 28
Sukkot No work permitted on Oct. 3-4. Work is permitted on Oct. 5-9 with certain restrictions.	Sunset of October 2 through sunset of October 9
Hoshanah Rabbah Work permitted with certain restrictions.	October 9
Shemini Atzeret No work is permitted.	Sunset of October 9 through nightfall of October 10
Simchat Torah No work is permitted.	Nightfall of October 10 through nightfall of October 11

Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)

September Peak?

Last Wednesday, I shared in my handholding class that I have placed (on Tues, 22 Sep) a Mar 2010 107 Put on SPY when SPY was around 107.30. At that point of time, the highest point since March low was 17 Sep 2009 (at around 107.55). My hypothesis is that the market is likely to have reached its Top in Sep. Then a retracement will follow. The market will then try to test its September High and fail. An October big drop might then follow.

At the point of entry, the risk is minimal while the reward is huge. Whether I am right or wrong, it does not matter. What matters most is whether the decision was correct at that point of time. Refer to my presentation slides to the Options Traders Club Meeting at http://persiancat04.blogspot.com/2009/09/v-shaped-or-w-shaped-recovery.html for some of the reasons.

My decision was reinforced by the price actions that took place after the FOMC meeting on 23 Sep.


The price tested and break the 17 September high but the price could not hold. It then broke the session low and went much lower. It represented the beginning of the recent slide. My intraday trades for both the SPY options and Forex were great on that day. My swing trade for the SPY Mar 2010 107 Put was of course doing well. My losing credit spread on SPY is also now back in the black.

The question is now, would SPY repeat the pattern of having a short retracement as in circle A, B and C in the chart below.


Or would it break the Low in Circle C and B to mark the break of the recent uptrend. We shall see. While some others would ride on the bigger trend until proven otherwise (it is the right strategy most of the time), for now, I am testing my hypothesis and it is raking $$$ for now. I might lock-in my profits if proven wrong.

Cheers !

PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)

OptionQuestSM Online Game

I was alerted to this game by a friend. Thought it might interest some readers of my blog.

OptionQuest^SM Online Game
http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/OptionQuest/Default.aspx

It states "The options strategy game that will challenge your knowledge and help sharpen your trading skills. Whether you have just set sail to explore the world of options or conquered the “Greeks” in the jungles of option pricing, OptionQuest will be a daring adventure for you.".

Have fun!

Cheers!

PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)

V-shaped or W-shaped recovery

The slides presented at the OTCS Club Meeting on 19 Sep 2009 could be downloaded at:
http://www.mediafire.com/?tzomdzjzmhj

Cheers!

PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)

80-year cycle or 60-year Cycle ?

As traders, we always like to look for patterns in the charts - as patterns do repeat itself sometimes. When it do, we want to be ready to capture the moment and ride on the trend/wave.

At this juncture, we are now almost at the crossroads. The U.S. market is now going through either a 80-year cycle or a 60-year cycle.

The pattern for the 80-year cycle is similar to the 1929 October crash with its peak in 3rd September 1929. The market then went into depression for almost 3 years. It bottomed in mid 1932. If we are drawing a parallel, it would then be year 2012.


On the other hand, the market could enter a 60 year cycle. In 1949, the world economy comes out of the ashes after World War 2. The market actually bottomed in 1942. After the war, most if not all countries, flooded the market with liquidity even though they cannot afford to do it. In 1949, the market bottomed in Jun and thereafter the market is very bullish.


So which pattern would it be? Either one of the two or none at all. I will elaborate more in my presentation at the Online Traders Club (Singapore) meeting on Sat, 19 September 2009. Among the stuff I will touch would be the relationship between US$, U.S. equities market and commodities. Registration to the talk can be done at www.eoptionsclub.com.

PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)