Extracted from "The Natural Contrarion"
Early Contrarians who buy Ignis Petroleum now below $1.50 will witness a 200% gain in weeks and over 1,200% in less than 24 months.
Barnett Shale Prospect, Texas
Ignis Petroleum reports that its Inglish Sisters #3 well in the Barnett Shale has begun production after successful completion. The Inglish Sisters #3 began recording revenue on April 7, 2006 and, as of April 17, 2006, has produced 1,300 barrels of oil and 7.1 million cubic feet of gas. Ultimate recovery and reserve estimates will be determined based on analysis of production data obtained in the coming months.
The Inglish Sisters #3 well is the first of three wells in which Ignis is currently participating in the Barnett Shale. The other two, the Powell #1 well, located in Montague County, Texas and the Powell #2 well, located in Cooke County, Texas, are scheduled to be fully completed shortly.
Acom A-6 Project, Texas
Ignis Petroleum recently announced the discovery of oil and gas on its Acom A-6 project with the successful completion of the A-6 well. Ignis reports that the A-6 well is currently producing oil and gas at an average daily rate of 120 barrels of oil and 460 thousand cubic feet of gas.
IGPG’s management team is placing the final touches on a pending agreement with industry behemoth Kerr-McGee (KMG – NYSE) on an expansive drill campaign for the Acom A-6 project. Surrounded by highly successful drilling campaigns, reserve estimates on this prospect are reported to be an incredible 9 BILLION cubic feet of natural gas.
In fact, one nearby blockbuster well, the Tex Miss, has produced over 3.4 BILLION cubic feet of gas in just 18 months of initial production. Kerr McGee/Ignis Petroleum are focusing on what is believed to be a continuance of this expansive petroleum-bearing structure. A major hit on the Acom A-6 would be an immediate “Company Maker” for Ignis Petroleum – one that would likely send the IGPG share-price exponentially higher.
Barnett Crossroads Area Map
The green arrow indicates the location of the prospect. Just a mile to the east, more than a million barrels of oil has been produced from a moderate sized structure that is about 20% larger than the prospective structure. Less than a mile south and one mile to the north, two small structures have produced over 200,000 barrels of oil each. More than a million barrels of oil has been produced from a moderate-sized structure to the northwest of the prospect.
Barnett Crossroads Project, Alabama
Ignis has now commenced operations on this relatively low-risk oil prospect with the drilling of the 19-1 #1 well. Upon successful completion, IGPG will own a 75% working interest, or 52.5% net revenue interest, in the well. Ignis expects to reach its full target depth of around 14,500 feet in the coming weeks.
Recent analysis suggests that this property could produce in excess of 500,000 BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) — that’s over $35 MILLION in potential revenues at current oil prices. The Gravel Church field to the east of the property has produced in excess of 1 million barrels of oil. Less than a mile south and one mile to the north, two structures have produced over 200,000 barrels of oil each.
Surrounded by successful drilling, and with an expected production rate of 300 barrels of oil per day, the Barnett Crossroads project represents a relatively low-risk oil target that should translate to a significantly higher IGPG share-price in the coming months.
North Wright Prospect, Louisiana
Seismic data suggests that the North Wright Prospect could contain over 118 BILLION cubic feet of gas. That level of natural gas production has the potential to generate a staggering $826 MILLION at current natural gas prices of around $7 per thousand cubic feet.
The North Wright Field is surrounded by Big-Money drilling campaigns. Similar production is currently underway at two fields within seven miles of the prospect. The Leleux Field, located just seven miles to the east along the same geologic formation, has produced over 200 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of gas with an estimated recovery of over 400 Bcf of gas. The Wright Field lies just five miles to the south and has produced over 64 Bcf of gas from just two wells over the last five years.
The pending development plan on the company’s North Wright Prospect estimates four wells (one well per year) to extract the potential natural gas reserves. The Ignis team projects a first year cash flow (net royalty interest) of over $20 million – which I project will translate to a major portfolio win for early IGPG shareholders.
Crimson Bayou Prospect, Louisiana
IGPG’s Crimson Bayou prospect, located in Iberville Parish, Louisiana, is expected to commence drilling in July. Ignis has signed a participation agreement with major energy producer Range Production Company (RRC – NYSE) on this prospect. Upon successful completion of the first well, Ignis will own 25% of the working interest.
Ignis Petroleum boasts a seasoned management team of industry professionals that command the attention of the “Big Players.” By teaming up with top-tier producers like Range Production Company, Ignis Petroleum is setting the foundation for long-term oil and gas production success.
Friday, April 28, 2006
Under My Radar - LDIS
Leadis Tech
Extracted from Briefing.com
LDIS can be described as an IPO bust as the co was poorly managed causing multiple downward estimate revisions. It's now well below its $14 offering price. However, the stock looks like a good turnaround play thanks to 1) new management; 2) its Q1 report; 3) strong balance sheet; and 4) the rolling out of new products, especially thin film transistor liquid crystal displays, or TFT LCDs. A stop loss at support in the $5.25 area makes sense.
On 25 Apr, Leadis Tech reported that its earnings misses by $0.02, ex items; Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.06); revenues rose 107% year/year to $24.1 mln vs the $21.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $28-32 mln vs. $21.80 mln consensus.
The stock gapped up the next day but retraced some back yesterday. I am waiting for the stock to form a higher low before playing this stock.
- PersianCat04 (Milionaire-in-progress).
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Updates - 26 Apr 06
RMBS
My May $45 Put did extremely well and was deep in-the-money. The stock bottomed at $37.70 (my target is $38.00) around 11:45 am (ET) with a spike in volume (5-mins chart). Sold my May $45 Put for $7.50 when the stock seems to reverse shortly after (bought for $4.10, 89.9% profit over 3 days). While the stock could still go down further to $36.00 (next support level, also the SMA50), I guess that the stock would probably need a rest before moving south again (if it want to).
The movement of the stock over the last few weeks is a classic “Buy on rumour and sell on news” pattern.
SNDK
The stock gave a bullish performance again today. The stock’s resistance level should be the lowest ($63.65) of the trade prior to earning announcement. It missed by a penny when it announced on 20 Apr after market closed. The stock dropped for two days thereafter but regained some of its losses over the past 2 days. It would not make sense for the stock to go beyond $63.65.
However, I am not willing to hold on as the stock is too bullish in behaviour. Closed my May 60 Put at a loss of 46.2%.
GM
GM received an analyst upgrade. My May credit spread is pretty negative. Will monitor this stock closely tomorrow.
DELL
My May $27.50 Put which I bought yesterday is showing decent paper profit as DELL continued with its slide.
TXN
TXN stock slided wiping off yesterday’s gain. My Jun $35 Put is uneventful.
XSNX
Uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
News from XSNX
Tue, 25 Apr 2006 19:23:20 -0700
Power Glass(TM) Developer, XsunX, Begins Marketing Phase;Joe Grimes to Present at the National Energy Marketers Association2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference
Irvine, CA, April 25, 2006 - XsunX, Inc., (XSNX:OB) will present the benefits of the company’s thin-film solar technology systems for use in the development and delivery of an array of new power sources this week in Washington, D.C. at the 2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference sponsored by the National Energy Marketers Association. During the conference, which will take place April 25th and 26th at the Marriott at Metro Center, XsunX Chief Operating Officer Mr. Joseph Grimes will provide potential licensees information about the company’s flexible thin-film photovoltaic capabilities, including Power GlassTM, an innovative thin-film solar technology that is intended to allow glass windows to produce electricity from the power of the sun.
According to Tom Djokovich, CEO, this is an important step in the company’s development cycle. "The electrical energy industry is searching for the next generation of power production alternatives to reduce the complexity and cost of delivering energy to a growing global demand for power. As a developer of thin-film solar energy technologies, we are focused on providing improved solar cell designs and manufacturing techniques offering energy marketers and producers opportunities to develop new markets and expand business opportunities. With our deliverables in sight now is the time to begin a meaningful dialog with the people who can help bring Power Glass and our other technologies to the marketplace; and this year’s National Energy Restructuring Conference is an excellent venue for launching that effort."
Power Glass(TM) Developer, XsunX, Begins Marketing Phase;Joe Grimes to Present at the National Energy Marketers Association2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference
Irvine, CA, April 25, 2006 - XsunX, Inc., (XSNX:OB) will present the benefits of the company’s thin-film solar technology systems for use in the development and delivery of an array of new power sources this week in Washington, D.C. at the 2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference sponsored by the National Energy Marketers Association. During the conference, which will take place April 25th and 26th at the Marriott at Metro Center, XsunX Chief Operating Officer Mr. Joseph Grimes will provide potential licensees information about the company’s flexible thin-film photovoltaic capabilities, including Power GlassTM, an innovative thin-film solar technology that is intended to allow glass windows to produce electricity from the power of the sun.
According to Tom Djokovich, CEO, this is an important step in the company’s development cycle. "The electrical energy industry is searching for the next generation of power production alternatives to reduce the complexity and cost of delivering energy to a growing global demand for power. As a developer of thin-film solar energy technologies, we are focused on providing improved solar cell designs and manufacturing techniques offering energy marketers and producers opportunities to develop new markets and expand business opportunities. With our deliverables in sight now is the time to begin a meaningful dialog with the people who can help bring Power Glass and our other technologies to the marketplace; and this year’s National Energy Restructuring Conference is an excellent venue for launching that effort."
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Update - 25 Apr 06
DELL
Closed my May $27.50 Put for $1.60 (I bought it for $0.55 . 191% profit over 4 days).
Bought back May $27.50 Put for $1.35 (now having 2nd thoughts - could have just move on to another stock). The stock might just reversed (looking at the chart, it need a confirmation candle for the reversal play). Will use a tight stop loss (perhaps $27.00) for this play tommorrow.
RMBS
The stock did very well dropping $3.03 today and closed at $41.47. My May $45 Put could have done better if not because of the volatile time value decay yesterday and today. Anyway, I should still be thankful. My target of $38 still remains. On hindsight, I should have played credit spread instead.
XSNX
The stock gained $0.27 today to end above $2.00. I have played this stock a number of times already. My current play is now positive again.
GM
Uneventful.
TXN & SNDK
Both stocks are against me today. Will monitor very closely tommorrow.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Update - 24 Apr 06
TXN – New Play
The stochastics and RSI showed that the stock turned bearish. Bought TXN Jun 35 Put.
Target 1 = $32.91 (also Fibonacci Level of 38.2%)
Target 2 = $30.75 (Fib Level of 61.8%)
GM – New Play
GM seems to be trading in a range. Played Bear Call Spread (in-the-money) May 20 and 22.50 Call. Will close my sold leg when the stock is around $19.20.
RMBS – New Play
Read from Briefing.com that the trading of RMBS is halted. Then the news came:
13:06
RMBS Rambus: Case will be dragged further before there is a resolution - BWS Financial (38.33 -0.26) -Update-
BWS Financial notes the jury, in the RMBS v Hynix Semi case, found that the DRAM patents in question are in valid and that Hynix should pay RMBS $306.4 mln in damages. The damages are a little higher than the $250 million they were expecting, but do not change their view on the proceedings. The firm had been expecting RMBS to win the case and set precedence for the remaining trials that RMBS is involved in. They would expect Hynix to appeal the ruling to either reverse the ruling or reduce the penalty. The firm says the news is positive for RMBS, as it moves the co closer to finalizing the patent cases they are involved in. They currently est that damages from all the suits brought by RMBS, including the Hynix award, would total approximately $1.5 bln. Some ests are calling for as much as $2 bln. The firm says this is a great sum for a co like RMBS who is expected to generated revs of approximately $190 mln in 2006, but the co receiving this amount would be over the next three to five years. They find that the stock already reflects the news from Hynix and that there would be selling on the news now that the award is known. They underscore that by Hynix losing the case today does not mean that all legal avenues are closed for the co. They think that the case will be dragged further before there is a resolution.
Also heard from CNBC that one analyst said that the fair value of the stock is $38 (est. damages from all lawsuits included). The stock gapped up to more than $7 when trading commenced at 14:05. I expected the stock to yo-yo but should drop thereafter as it seems the market had somewhat priced-in the news. I bought May $45 Put for $4.10. (On hindsight, should have just played credit spread - time value depreciate very fast that day). Let see what happens today.
Target = $36.15
Stop Loss = $46.99
DELL – The stock did well. It extended its loss yesterday. My May $27.50 Put appreciated around 170%.
SNDK – The stock also did well. It extended its loss again yesterday.
AMD - Closed my Jul $32.50 Call with a small profit. I am not comfortable with this stock (nothing to do with technical analysis).
PALM – Closed my May $22.50 Put for a small profit before the stock rise up further. An analyst upgraded the stock today. Anyway, the stock does not seem to show much weakness over the past few days.
The stochastics and RSI showed that the stock turned bearish. Bought TXN Jun 35 Put.
Target 1 = $32.91 (also Fibonacci Level of 38.2%)
Target 2 = $30.75 (Fib Level of 61.8%)
GM – New Play
GM seems to be trading in a range. Played Bear Call Spread (in-the-money) May 20 and 22.50 Call. Will close my sold leg when the stock is around $19.20.
RMBS – New Play
Read from Briefing.com that the trading of RMBS is halted. Then the news came:
13:06
RMBS Rambus: Case will be dragged further before there is a resolution - BWS Financial (38.33 -0.26) -Update-
BWS Financial notes the jury, in the RMBS v Hynix Semi case, found that the DRAM patents in question are in valid and that Hynix should pay RMBS $306.4 mln in damages. The damages are a little higher than the $250 million they were expecting, but do not change their view on the proceedings. The firm had been expecting RMBS to win the case and set precedence for the remaining trials that RMBS is involved in. They would expect Hynix to appeal the ruling to either reverse the ruling or reduce the penalty. The firm says the news is positive for RMBS, as it moves the co closer to finalizing the patent cases they are involved in. They currently est that damages from all the suits brought by RMBS, including the Hynix award, would total approximately $1.5 bln. Some ests are calling for as much as $2 bln. The firm says this is a great sum for a co like RMBS who is expected to generated revs of approximately $190 mln in 2006, but the co receiving this amount would be over the next three to five years. They find that the stock already reflects the news from Hynix and that there would be selling on the news now that the award is known. They underscore that by Hynix losing the case today does not mean that all legal avenues are closed for the co. They think that the case will be dragged further before there is a resolution.
Also heard from CNBC that one analyst said that the fair value of the stock is $38 (est. damages from all lawsuits included). The stock gapped up to more than $7 when trading commenced at 14:05. I expected the stock to yo-yo but should drop thereafter as it seems the market had somewhat priced-in the news. I bought May $45 Put for $4.10. (On hindsight, should have just played credit spread - time value depreciate very fast that day). Let see what happens today.
Target = $36.15
Stop Loss = $46.99
DELL – The stock did well. It extended its loss yesterday. My May $27.50 Put appreciated around 170%.
SNDK – The stock also did well. It extended its loss again yesterday.
AMD - Closed my Jul $32.50 Call with a small profit. I am not comfortable with this stock (nothing to do with technical analysis).
PALM – Closed my May $22.50 Put for a small profit before the stock rise up further. An analyst upgraded the stock today. Anyway, the stock does not seem to show much weakness over the past few days.
XSNX - uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Saturday, April 22, 2006
21 Apr 06
Updates
SNDK
SNDK gapped down on opening (first day after earnings announcement). It closed at $60.05. As such, my Apr $65/70 Bear Call Credit Spread served me extremely well as my sold leg expired worthless. I pocketed all of the $180 premium that I collected. (Played only on Thursday - 1 day only!). 56.25% returns in 1 day.
AAPL
AAPL would probably do well in the next 2 quarters. However, at the moment, AAPL seems weak. Its moves after earnings results on Thursday and Friday are not convincing at all. I have made my money from AAPL in recent trades and I am willing to cut loss on my last trade. That was what I did. Sold my May $70 Call on Friday. Will continue to monitor this stock.
DELL
SNDK
SNDK gapped down on opening (first day after earnings announcement). It closed at $60.05. As such, my Apr $65/70 Bear Call Credit Spread served me extremely well as my sold leg expired worthless. I pocketed all of the $180 premium that I collected. (Played only on Thursday - 1 day only!). 56.25% returns in 1 day.
AAPL
AAPL would probably do well in the next 2 quarters. However, at the moment, AAPL seems weak. Its moves after earnings results on Thursday and Friday are not convincing at all. I have made my money from AAPL in recent trades and I am willing to cut loss on my last trade. That was what I did. Sold my May $70 Call on Friday. Will continue to monitor this stock.
DELL
DELL extend its loss and tanked on Friday with a spike in volume, closing at $27.01. My May $27.50 Put is now in-the-money ($$$) and appreciated more than 100%. The next target (using Fibonacci retracement level of 1.618) is around $26.00. Other targets include $23.26 and $21.90 (4-yr low).
XSNX, PALM, AMD - uneventful.
NEW PLAY - SNDK
Bgt May $60 Put (slightly out-of-the-money).
- Target = $52.15
- Stop Loss = $65.79
STOCKS UNDER MY RADAR
INTC, IR and TXN - Possible bearish (I am a little bearish over the overall market - as such, I will probably have more bearish play in the short term).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Thursday, April 20, 2006
New Play SNDK, DELL & CRDN
SNDK (Earnings Play on 20 Apr ATC)
Read the news (below) from Briefing.com today. Based on experience, as the stock had been going up abt $14 since abt 4 weeks ago. the market would not accept in-line earnings results positively. Played Bear Call credit spread Apr $65/70 Put (slightly in-the-money) for $1.80. I reckon that if this play is against me, my loss would be fairly limited and the sold leg time value of $2.41 would be almost wiped out by tommorrow (expiration Friday). If this play is on my side, I would probably keep most, if not all of the $1.80. After market closed today, the stock stayed around $62.10 (hopefully, it stays that way tommorrow).
14:24
SNDK SanDisk: earnings preview (65.29 +1.52) -Update-
SNDK is scheduled to report Q1 earnings today after the close with analysts expecting EPS of $0.45 on revs of $623 mln... C.E Unterberg anticipates that the co will report revs essentially in-line with the Street consensus of $627 mln, with higher megabyte shipments offsetting an aggressive period for retail price drops. However, the firm says G.M pressure may make Street consensus EPS of $0.45 more challenging to meet. Maintain MP view on stock during challenging NAND mkt period. They expect that total megabyte shipments in Q1 will exceed co's guidance for flat to up 10% sequentially, due to strong retail sales data and continued increases in the average density per card... Amtech is looking for EPS of $0.47 with revs of $622 mln. Their product rev calls for $540 mln and $82 mln in royalties. They are above the street for Q2, modeling EPS of $0.60 with revs of $785 mln vs. consensus EPS of $0.51 with revs of $683 mln. They are expecting a seasonally strong quarter following aggressive price cuts in Q1 with 30-50% bit growth. On the gross margin front, the firm says it should start improving with 300mm/70nm/MLC production and less severe pricing declines of approx 10-15% in Q2. Click here for technical levels of interest.
DELL (bearish)
DELL broke its 52-week low today. I have been bearish on DELL for sometime now. Its margin had been dropping and it is facing increased competition from Lenovo. Bought May $27.50 Put.
Target = $23.26
Stop Loss (Tight) = above $$28.60
CRDN (day trade)
Been monitoring this stock. Initially bgt the Jun 55 Put for swing play. But the paper profit is too good to lose (at its peak, it was $110). As the stock reversed back pretty fast, I lock-in my profits for $70. Tried to buy back the June Put but it was not filled. Will probably play this stock again tommorrow.
UPDATES
AAPL
My AAPL Bull Put spread did very well. Closed my sold leg of Apr $65 Put for $0.05 when the stock reversed south (play safe). My May $70 Call is still slightly negative. Have to check the market sentiment tommorrow and decide whether to keep playing this stock.
XSNX, AMD & PALM - uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Read the news (below) from Briefing.com today. Based on experience, as the stock had been going up abt $14 since abt 4 weeks ago. the market would not accept in-line earnings results positively. Played Bear Call credit spread Apr $65/70 Put (slightly in-the-money) for $1.80. I reckon that if this play is against me, my loss would be fairly limited and the sold leg time value of $2.41 would be almost wiped out by tommorrow (expiration Friday). If this play is on my side, I would probably keep most, if not all of the $1.80. After market closed today, the stock stayed around $62.10 (hopefully, it stays that way tommorrow).
14:24
SNDK SanDisk: earnings preview (65.29 +1.52) -Update-
SNDK is scheduled to report Q1 earnings today after the close with analysts expecting EPS of $0.45 on revs of $623 mln... C.E Unterberg anticipates that the co will report revs essentially in-line with the Street consensus of $627 mln, with higher megabyte shipments offsetting an aggressive period for retail price drops. However, the firm says G.M pressure may make Street consensus EPS of $0.45 more challenging to meet. Maintain MP view on stock during challenging NAND mkt period. They expect that total megabyte shipments in Q1 will exceed co's guidance for flat to up 10% sequentially, due to strong retail sales data and continued increases in the average density per card... Amtech is looking for EPS of $0.47 with revs of $622 mln. Their product rev calls for $540 mln and $82 mln in royalties. They are above the street for Q2, modeling EPS of $0.60 with revs of $785 mln vs. consensus EPS of $0.51 with revs of $683 mln. They are expecting a seasonally strong quarter following aggressive price cuts in Q1 with 30-50% bit growth. On the gross margin front, the firm says it should start improving with 300mm/70nm/MLC production and less severe pricing declines of approx 10-15% in Q2. Click here for technical levels of interest.
DELL (bearish)
DELL broke its 52-week low today. I have been bearish on DELL for sometime now. Its margin had been dropping and it is facing increased competition from Lenovo. Bought May $27.50 Put.
Target = $23.26
Stop Loss (Tight) = above $$28.60
CRDN (day trade)
Been monitoring this stock. Initially bgt the Jun 55 Put for swing play. But the paper profit is too good to lose (at its peak, it was $110). As the stock reversed back pretty fast, I lock-in my profits for $70. Tried to buy back the June Put but it was not filled. Will probably play this stock again tommorrow.
UPDATES
AAPL
My AAPL Bull Put spread did very well. Closed my sold leg of Apr $65 Put for $0.05 when the stock reversed south (play safe). My May $70 Call is still slightly negative. Have to check the market sentiment tommorrow and decide whether to keep playing this stock.
XSNX, AMD & PALM - uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Updates (last 2 days)
Market had a very strong rally on Tuesday and maintained its gain yesterday.
AAPL
My AAPL recovered some of its paper losses. Earnings results was announced after market closed. After hours summary from Briefing.com showed AAPL with a 4.4% rise in price. Hopefully, it performs as well when the market opens today. Jim Cramer "Mad Money" is bullish on AAPL (as of yesterday). My price target is still $73 and if it breaks convincingly, $75 (why $75? Don't ask me yet. I am still finding the answer. Anyway, I may just stick to the $73 target). My Bull Put credit spread on AAPL is already positive.
STOCKS UNDER MY RADAR (Reversal soon)
- RIMM (possible bullish play)
- CRDN (possible bearish play. Doji formed yesterday)
ON HINDSIGHT
Should have hang on to my bullish play on CEPH and place a stop-loss (though I made some profit b4 I closed this position). The technicals are still on my side and the set-up is still good when I let go. Fear overcame me. Lesson learnt.
BZH - I was right to have closed this position. The stock is like a yo-yo for the past 2 days. It may still go down though. Time to move on and play other stocks with better chart formation.
STX - I was right to close this PUT position. The stock was up, right till earnings announcement. Then it dropped. When I played STX, I played based on the charts, not knowing the earnings announcement is coming soon (should have checked earlier). Playing with earnings in mind create a new dimension to consider. I am right to play for the right reason.
- PersianCat04 (Milionaire-in-progress)
AAPL
My AAPL recovered some of its paper losses. Earnings results was announced after market closed. After hours summary from Briefing.com showed AAPL with a 4.4% rise in price. Hopefully, it performs as well when the market opens today. Jim Cramer "Mad Money" is bullish on AAPL (as of yesterday). My price target is still $73 and if it breaks convincingly, $75 (why $75? Don't ask me yet. I am still finding the answer. Anyway, I may just stick to the $73 target). My Bull Put credit spread on AAPL is already positive.
STOCKS UNDER MY RADAR (Reversal soon)
- RIMM (possible bullish play)
- CRDN (possible bearish play. Doji formed yesterday)
ON HINDSIGHT
Should have hang on to my bullish play on CEPH and place a stop-loss (though I made some profit b4 I closed this position). The technicals are still on my side and the set-up is still good when I let go. Fear overcame me. Lesson learnt.
BZH - I was right to have closed this position. The stock is like a yo-yo for the past 2 days. It may still go down though. Time to move on and play other stocks with better chart formation.
STX - I was right to close this PUT position. The stock was up, right till earnings announcement. Then it dropped. When I played STX, I played based on the charts, not knowing the earnings announcement is coming soon (should have checked earlier). Playing with earnings in mind create a new dimension to consider. I am right to play for the right reason.
- PersianCat04 (Milionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
New Play - AMD (Bullish)
AMD
The stock price had been dropping from its 52-week high of $42.70 to a low of $29.97. The stochastics and RSI are showing "Buy"signals. The candlestick charts showed a confirmation candle ("Buy" signal too). Fundamentally, the stock is good and had been gaining market share at the expense of INTC.
I played Jul $32.50 Call. The stock closed at $31.54.
Target 1 = $34.38 (also 38.2% Fibonacci level)
Target 2 = $36.16
Target 3 = $38.40
Stop Loss = below $29.97
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
The stock price had been dropping from its 52-week high of $42.70 to a low of $29.97. The stochastics and RSI are showing "Buy"signals. The candlestick charts showed a confirmation candle ("Buy" signal too). Fundamentally, the stock is good and had been gaining market share at the expense of INTC.
I played Jul $32.50 Call. The stock closed at $31.54.
Target 1 = $34.38 (also 38.2% Fibonacci level)
Target 2 = $36.16
Target 3 = $38.40
Stop Loss = below $29.97
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, April 17, 2006
Updates - 17 Apr
Almost the whole market tanked today. My current trades have mixed results. I am quite bearish on the overall market.
BZH - closed my sold leg Apr45 Put for some profit. Housing starts and permits announcement tomm. I rather lock-in my profit. Housing stocks can sometimes work im weird ways. Anyway, the stochastics and RSI showed that the stock is about to reverse. DHI earnings tomm might also affect the overall Housing stocks.
CEPH - Briefing.com reported that the sales and revenue from the Vivitrol had been included in the company estimates. It had only moderate impact on the stock. This is my signal to close my position. As the market tanked, I do not wish hold many long positions. Closed my Bull Put credit spread for $50 profit (b4 comm) - played only on last Thurs .
PALM - My May $22.50 Put (bgt out-of-money) are back in positive territory.
AAPL - My negative territory worsen. Could have converted my straight Call into a spread. Somehow, I am quite reluctant. Let see what happpen tomm. Instead, I played a Bull Put credit spread April $65/$60 (in-the-moeny) for $105.
Stocks I am monitoring - RIMM and AMD.
BZH - closed my sold leg Apr45 Put for some profit. Housing starts and permits announcement tomm. I rather lock-in my profit. Housing stocks can sometimes work im weird ways. Anyway, the stochastics and RSI showed that the stock is about to reverse. DHI earnings tomm might also affect the overall Housing stocks.
CEPH - Briefing.com reported that the sales and revenue from the Vivitrol had been included in the company estimates. It had only moderate impact on the stock. This is my signal to close my position. As the market tanked, I do not wish hold many long positions. Closed my Bull Put credit spread for $50 profit (b4 comm) - played only on last Thurs .
PALM - My May $22.50 Put (bgt out-of-money) are back in positive territory.
AAPL - My negative territory worsen. Could have converted my straight Call into a spread. Somehow, I am quite reluctant. Let see what happpen tomm. Instead, I played a Bull Put credit spread April $65/$60 (in-the-moeny) for $105.
Stocks I am monitoring - RIMM and AMD.
Friday, April 14, 2006
How I Solve My Spyware/Adware Problem
First of all, I must thank all my fellow traders for sharing their experience in getting rid of their adware/spyware problems. I have tried running SpyBot, Ad-Aware, Windows Defendor, Norton Utilities and Yahoo Anti-Spy. Somehow, the problems persist.
Yesterday, I did a system restore on my notebook (with XP operating system) - choosing the system to restore as at mid Mar. Then I run the various Anti-spyware/Ad-aware, etc. These moves seem to work. No problem so far.
- Persiancat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Yesterday, I did a system restore on my notebook (with XP operating system) - choosing the system to restore as at mid Mar. Then I run the various Anti-spyware/Ad-aware, etc. These moves seem to work. No problem so far.
- Persiancat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
New Play CEPH (Bullish)
CEPH
Bullish. The stock had been going downhill dropping 30% since 15 Mar due to a problem in getting approval for its drugs, Strattera and Sparlon. The stock had been resting around its 61.8% Fibonacci level. I've been waiting for a breakout. The Stochastics, RSI and MACD are showing bullish signals.
Then on Thursday (before market open), Briefing.com reported that one of CEPH drugs, Vivitrol, which is on trial is likely to be approved on 16th Apr (may be its Briefing typo error). I played Bull Put credit spread Apr $60/$55 (slightly in-the-money then). I will pocket $140 per contract (38.9% profit) should the Apr options expired worthless on Fri next week. The long weekend and the waterfall effect of time value over the expiration week deterred me from playing a straight call. Anyway, I am not sure how far the stock can go uphill.
The news of FDA approval for the drug was confirmed, just about 8 mins before the market close on Thursday. The stock price went up - but I think it could appreciate more. Anyway, my Apr options are now out-of-money (+ve for me !) Let see how it go next week.
AAPL
My original target of $73 for AAPL before the earnings announcement had not been met. Instead, it peaked at $72.05 then go downhill. On Thursday, it formed a doji. This stock has a strong support around $60 (its SMA 200). Its earnings annonuncement is on Wed , next week. Not much time. My May $70 Call is -ve. I might sell the Apr $65 Call (convert to Bear Call Credit spread) if things get out-of-hand. The stochastics, RSI and MACD showed bearish signals. I might play this straight call till earnings announcement.
BZH
Sell-to-open the Apr 65 Call again - credit spread (3rd time using the same bgt leg).
STX
Sell-to-close my STX for a small loss (price for not checking its earnings date b4 playing). Not willing to play till earnings annoucement.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Updates on 12 Apr
My current portfolio:
AAPL Call - Very trying. But I'm still bullish prior to earnings. Still holding.
BZH Bear Call spread - Had closed my sold leg twice (each with >$100 profit per contract) since I played this spread. Looking forward to sell again. My bgt leg still remains.
PALM Put - Bgt the May $22.5 Put yesterday. Slightly positive, nothing to crow about.
STX Put - Bgt yesterday. Made a mistake on this stock. While the charts showed a "sell", I forgot to check its earnings announcement date. The stock is now likely to rise prior to earnings announcement on 18 Apr. I am holding on for the moment.
QQQQ Put - Sold my QQQQ Jun $45 Put for > 19% profit (4 days of patience).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
AAPL Call - Very trying. But I'm still bullish prior to earnings. Still holding.
BZH Bear Call spread - Had closed my sold leg twice (each with >$100 profit per contract) since I played this spread. Looking forward to sell again. My bgt leg still remains.
PALM Put - Bgt the May $22.5 Put yesterday. Slightly positive, nothing to crow about.
STX Put - Bgt yesterday. Made a mistake on this stock. While the charts showed a "sell", I forgot to check its earnings announcement date. The stock is now likely to rise prior to earnings announcement on 18 Apr. I am holding on for the moment.
QQQQ Put - Sold my QQQQ Jun $45 Put for > 19% profit (4 days of patience).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
PALM, STX - Possible new play
Possible New Play
PALM ($23.33) - nice setup - Bearish Play. Candlestick, RSI and stochastics indicators showed a sell signal. PALM had been on a bullish trend (and gaining market share) due to its Treo handset (compete with RIMM blackberry) and the problems faced by RIMM in its court case. Now that RIMM court case had been settled, RIMM is set to take back some of its market share from PALM. There are other new competitors coming to the market, MOT & NOK.
I think PALM is due for correction.
Target 1 = $21.97
Target 2 = $19.25
Stop Loss = above $24.91
STX ($26.45) - also Bearish
Target 1 = $23.29
Stop Loss = above $27.74
Have Profitable Trades everyday
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
PALM ($23.33) - nice setup - Bearish Play. Candlestick, RSI and stochastics indicators showed a sell signal. PALM had been on a bullish trend (and gaining market share) due to its Treo handset (compete with RIMM blackberry) and the problems faced by RIMM in its court case. Now that RIMM court case had been settled, RIMM is set to take back some of its market share from PALM. There are other new competitors coming to the market, MOT & NOK.
I think PALM is due for correction.
Target 1 = $21.97
Target 2 = $19.25
Stop Loss = above $24.91
STX ($26.45) - also Bearish
Target 1 = $23.29
Stop Loss = above $27.74
Have Profitable Trades everyday
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, April 10, 2006
Weekend Edition
The general market tanked on Friday.
I have closed my position in HOV. I did a credit spread Apr $45.00/$50.00. Though, my options are out-of-money, I am locking-in my profits and want to focus on other stocks. I sense that the market will be very active this 2 weeks.
My current position are:
- AAPL May 70 Call (sold it and buy it back at a lower price on Friday).
- XSNX (sold it and buy it back at a lower price on Friday)
- BZH Apr Bear Call Credit spreads. It is now -ve for me. (It was +ve before). I am still bearish on the overall housing market.
- QQQQ Jun $45 Put (Bought on Fri. Time value of only $0.10. This play was recommended by www.MrSwing.com. I looked at the charts, looks good. I am also bearish on the overall market. This is also a leap of faith play as I play b4 the confirmation candle. I am already slightly positive for this play). If you want to play this, plse wait for the confirmation candle.
Currently, I am bearish on the technology stocks (except AAPL). I am monitoring PALM, SNDK, STX for possible shorting play (either straight Put or Bear Call Credit spreads).
NEM and FCX charts also look good for shorting play. But for commodities, I like to play long for the moment. as such I would play them when the charts show they are reversing for a bull rally.
For breakouts play, I am now looking at JNPR and CEPH.
Having sharpened my technical analysis (TA) to a comfortable level (still have a lot to learn though) I am now working to trust my intuition. I think this will be a long process. While the TA provides me with the tools for the science of trading, I think the intuition will provide me with tools for the Art of Trading.
It is now 2 weeks before Expiration Friday. Have to remind myself not to play Apr options unless it is a credit spread.
Bye for now. Have Profitable Trades everyday.
- Persian Cat04.
Saturday, April 08, 2006
XSNX updates - Speculative Play
Thu, 6 Apr 2006 10:36:33
Hi Marcus,
I think the performance of the stock over the past 2hrs today speaks for itself. Hopefully, the stock price sustains its rally today. Looking at the bigger picture, it's support level is around $1.55/$1.60, which it hit yesterday and bounce a little. Today, it gave a convincing rally (so far). Frankly, I would be concerned if the stock goes belowand stays below $1.55. It does not have stock options for us to play repair strategy. We only have a plain Stop Loss.
--- mhoeller wrote:
Appreciate your sharing. What's your take on XSNX now, its selling off with volume. Just a correction? Best regards, Marcus Hoeller
Thu, 23 Mar 2006 09:29:18
Hi All!
The stock XSNX hit new high at $2.91 last Thursday. Since then, it experienced a brief pull back forming a doji candle on Tuesday. Yesterday, it gave a good white candle - setting the stage for another attempt to break new high (perhaps by Fri, tomm). Whether it happens or not, remains to be seen. But it is interesting to see that the stock started to behave in a particular pattern.
So far the pattern is: Each time it significantly breaks a new high, it briefly pulls back and then continue with its uptrend. I would consider this play as speculative and as such only a small $$$ of my portfolio should be used. The stock do hold promise but it needed sales (which we would know perhaps after its marketing campaign started). I would think this stock would continue its uptrend unless there are some bad news. (see ESLR or TASR in its first exponential growth year for similar story lines - show promise but the stock is still not profitable). If you play, make sure you have your stops. Have a profitable trade everyday.
Fri, 17 Mar 2006 04:41:38
At the moment, it is speculative until there are more promising info after their marketing starts.
------Kim wrote:
Hie all,
XSNX hit 2.78 yesterday. both vol and price are up. Hope some of you have bought into Rafee's comments. There is interest in this stock. Question is what strategy sh one adopt. Speculative or possible growth stock?? Any thoughts?? Kim
Tue, 14 Mar 2006 07:37:01
Hi All, The stock XSNX broke a new high yesterday. It seems that the stock is pretty bullish. Each time there is a pullback, it provide a good opportunity to long. I'm now in position again.
Thu, 9 Mar 2006 04:33:53
Hi Kim,
This stock is actually a speculative play with a seemingly strong fundamentals. As in all speculative play, we should play small only. But the returns could be very high. I use the charts to determine my entry and exit. I am now waiting forthe right signals to enter again. For the last few days, the stock behaved as expected. I think there are some institutional play oredi. Thx.
--- Kim wrote:
Thks, This stock is really volatile. I hope it has some strong fundamentals. Continue to share with us. Thks Kim.
Wed, 8 Mar 2006 10:18:52
Hi all!
The stock XSNX peaked at $2.115 on Monday. Yesterday, the price ended below Monday's low confirming a reversal (based on candlestick analysis). The stochastics (8,3,3) and RSI (4) also pointed to a reversal. If the stock drops below yesterday's low, coupled with today's bearish sentiment for the general market (and the energy market), tendency is that the stock would continue to drop. It's next support are $1.62, $1.40 and $1.06. Strong support at $0.87. I already taken my profit and waiting for the next reversal to long again.
Hi Marcus,
I think the performance of the stock over the past 2hrs today speaks for itself. Hopefully, the stock price sustains its rally today. Looking at the bigger picture, it's support level is around $1.55/$1.60, which it hit yesterday and bounce a little. Today, it gave a convincing rally (so far). Frankly, I would be concerned if the stock goes belowand stays below $1.55. It does not have stock options for us to play repair strategy. We only have a plain Stop Loss.
--- mhoeller wrote:
Appreciate your sharing. What's your take on XSNX now, its selling off with volume. Just a correction? Best regards, Marcus Hoeller
Thu, 23 Mar 2006 09:29:18
Hi All!
The stock XSNX hit new high at $2.91 last Thursday. Since then, it experienced a brief pull back forming a doji candle on Tuesday. Yesterday, it gave a good white candle - setting the stage for another attempt to break new high (perhaps by Fri, tomm). Whether it happens or not, remains to be seen. But it is interesting to see that the stock started to behave in a particular pattern.
So far the pattern is: Each time it significantly breaks a new high, it briefly pulls back and then continue with its uptrend. I would consider this play as speculative and as such only a small $$$ of my portfolio should be used. The stock do hold promise but it needed sales (which we would know perhaps after its marketing campaign started). I would think this stock would continue its uptrend unless there are some bad news. (see ESLR or TASR in its first exponential growth year for similar story lines - show promise but the stock is still not profitable). If you play, make sure you have your stops. Have a profitable trade everyday.
Fri, 17 Mar 2006 04:41:38
At the moment, it is speculative until there are more promising info after their marketing starts.
------Kim wrote:
Hie all,
XSNX hit 2.78 yesterday. both vol and price are up. Hope some of you have bought into Rafee's comments. There is interest in this stock. Question is what strategy sh one adopt. Speculative or possible growth stock?? Any thoughts?? Kim
Tue, 14 Mar 2006 07:37:01
Hi All, The stock XSNX broke a new high yesterday. It seems that the stock is pretty bullish. Each time there is a pullback, it provide a good opportunity to long. I'm now in position again.
Thu, 9 Mar 2006 04:33:53
Hi Kim,
This stock is actually a speculative play with a seemingly strong fundamentals. As in all speculative play, we should play small only. But the returns could be very high. I use the charts to determine my entry and exit. I am now waiting forthe right signals to enter again. For the last few days, the stock behaved as expected. I think there are some institutional play oredi. Thx.
--- Kim wrote:
Thks, This stock is really volatile. I hope it has some strong fundamentals. Continue to share with us. Thks Kim.
Wed, 8 Mar 2006 10:18:52
Hi all!
The stock XSNX peaked at $2.115 on Monday. Yesterday, the price ended below Monday's low confirming a reversal (based on candlestick analysis). The stochastics (8,3,3) and RSI (4) also pointed to a reversal. If the stock drops below yesterday's low, coupled with today's bearish sentiment for the general market (and the energy market), tendency is that the stock would continue to drop. It's next support are $1.62, $1.40 and $1.06. Strong support at $0.87. I already taken my profit and waiting for the next reversal to long again.
Credit Spreads
Thu, 6 Apr 2006 08:26:47
I've been bearish on the overall trend for GM, F and housing stocks. I only play them when they have reversed and turn south. I tried playing straight PUT for these stocks - get mix results - time decay eatsinto my options. So I now play credit spreads on these stocks. The indicators I use include the Stocs, RSI, Volume, MACD, Fibonacci, candlesticks charting. Thx.
-- Perry Tan wrote:
Congrats. For your recent spread plays, could u share as to how u identified these stocks to play? How did u screen & based on what indicators? Perry
I've been bearish on the overall trend for GM, F and housing stocks. I only play them when they have reversed and turn south. I tried playing straight PUT for these stocks - get mix results - time decay eatsinto my options. So I now play credit spreads on these stocks. The indicators I use include the Stocs, RSI, Volume, MACD, Fibonacci, candlesticks charting. Thx.
-- Perry Tan wrote:
Congrats. For your recent spread plays, could u share as to how u identified these stocks to play? How did u screen & based on what indicators? Perry
AAPL updates
Fri, 7 Apr 2006 04:34
AAPL had a good run yesterday (2 days in a row). It broke its resistance level of $68.04 and closed at$71.24. The next resistance is $73.00 (which is also my Target - may have to review my target upwards. Have to see what happens today.) followed by $76.60 and$86.40.
I've already sell-to-close my AAPL May 62.50 Call (made more than 100% - six days of patience). Yesterday, I buy-to-open AAPL May 70 Call. I did this because I want to release my funds that is locked in the May $62.50 Call (already > $9.00). e.g. I could buy 2 May 70 Call for the price of 1 May 62.50 Call.
As I mentioned b4, I am playing AAPL up to earnings announcement. For the earnings play, I am not sure what to play yet. Will decide nearer to the date.
Tue, 4 Apr 2006 16:28:04
Hi Thomas, Playing AAPL at the moment can be quite trying. While I do not know which way the stock is going, I am still holding on to my May $62.50 Call. The stock had been talked down by various parties today. GOOG is also introducing music download challenging AAPL iTunes. Despite that, AAPL just lost$1.48. Let see what happens tomm.
Looking at the bigger picture, I would be concern if the stock drops below and stay below $56.67 (its next support line). If that happens, I wld convert my Call to a spread selling Apr $57.50 Call. I reckon if I sell Apr $57.50 Call and consequently May $57.50 Call, I could recover most of the loss (if not a small profit) from my May $62.50 Call. Thanks.
--- Thomas Saw wrote:
AAPL look like its forming an "island". So what is your view? Many thanks for sharing . Thomas
Thu, 30 Mar 2006 6:04:51
I found another potential great play.AAPL - bullish.
The stock had been heading south since mid Jan 06 (it's 52 week high). From its high in mid Jan against yesterday's low, it lost more than 33%. After breaking its SMA200 line, it bounced back with a convincing run above the SMA200 and close $3.62 higher with strong volume at $62.33 - conveniently resting near the Fibonacci 61.8% level (which is also the candlestick resistance level). The stocs (8,3,3) and RSI(4) showed a bullish signal. The next resistance are $68.04, $73.00 Stop loss at $57.67 AAPL earnings results will be out on 19 Apr 06. I will play when the stock goes above $62.33. Thx.
AAPL had a good run yesterday (2 days in a row). It broke its resistance level of $68.04 and closed at$71.24. The next resistance is $73.00 (which is also my Target - may have to review my target upwards. Have to see what happens today.) followed by $76.60 and$86.40.
I've already sell-to-close my AAPL May 62.50 Call (made more than 100% - six days of patience). Yesterday, I buy-to-open AAPL May 70 Call. I did this because I want to release my funds that is locked in the May $62.50 Call (already > $9.00). e.g. I could buy 2 May 70 Call for the price of 1 May 62.50 Call.
As I mentioned b4, I am playing AAPL up to earnings announcement. For the earnings play, I am not sure what to play yet. Will decide nearer to the date.
Tue, 4 Apr 2006 16:28:04
Hi Thomas, Playing AAPL at the moment can be quite trying. While I do not know which way the stock is going, I am still holding on to my May $62.50 Call. The stock had been talked down by various parties today. GOOG is also introducing music download challenging AAPL iTunes. Despite that, AAPL just lost$1.48. Let see what happens tomm.
Looking at the bigger picture, I would be concern if the stock drops below and stay below $56.67 (its next support line). If that happens, I wld convert my Call to a spread selling Apr $57.50 Call. I reckon if I sell Apr $57.50 Call and consequently May $57.50 Call, I could recover most of the loss (if not a small profit) from my May $62.50 Call. Thanks.
--- Thomas Saw wrote:
AAPL look like its forming an "island". So what is your view? Many thanks for sharing . Thomas
Thu, 30 Mar 2006 6:04:51
I found another potential great play.AAPL - bullish.
The stock had been heading south since mid Jan 06 (it's 52 week high). From its high in mid Jan against yesterday's low, it lost more than 33%. After breaking its SMA200 line, it bounced back with a convincing run above the SMA200 and close $3.62 higher with strong volume at $62.33 - conveniently resting near the Fibonacci 61.8% level (which is also the candlestick resistance level). The stocs (8,3,3) and RSI(4) showed a bullish signal. The next resistance are $68.04, $73.00 Stop loss at $57.67 AAPL earnings results will be out on 19 Apr 06. I will play when the stock goes above $62.33. Thx.
