Friday, April 14, 2006

New Play CEPH (Bullish)


CEPH
Bullish. The stock had been going downhill dropping 30% since 15 Mar due to a problem in getting approval for its drugs, Strattera and Sparlon. The stock had been resting around its 61.8% Fibonacci level. I've been waiting for a breakout. The Stochastics, RSI and MACD are showing bullish signals.

Then on Thursday (before market open), Briefing.com reported that one of CEPH drugs, Vivitrol, which is on trial is likely to be approved on 16th Apr (may be its Briefing typo error). I played Bull Put credit spread Apr $60/$55 (slightly in-the-money then). I will pocket $140 per contract (38.9% profit) should the Apr options expired worthless on Fri next week. The long weekend and the waterfall effect of time value over the expiration week deterred me from playing a straight call. Anyway, I am not sure how far the stock can go uphill.

The news of FDA approval for the drug was confirmed, just about 8 mins before the market close on Thursday. The stock price went up - but I think it could appreciate more. Anyway, my Apr options are now out-of-money (+ve for me !) Let see how it go next week.


AAPL
My original target of $73 for AAPL before the earnings announcement had not been met. Instead, it peaked at $72.05 then go downhill. On Thursday, it formed a doji. This stock has a strong support around $60 (its SMA 200). Its earnings annonuncement is on Wed , next week. Not much time. My May $70 Call is -ve. I might sell the Apr $65 Call (convert to Bear Call Credit spread) if things get out-of-hand. The stochastics, RSI and MACD showed bearish signals. I might play this straight call till earnings announcement.


BZH
Sell-to-open the Apr 65 Call again - credit spread (3rd time using the same bgt leg).


STX
Sell-to-close my STX for a small loss (price for not checking its earnings date b4 playing). Not willing to play till earnings annoucement.


- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Rafee, how about earnings play ?. can be very exciting if we do our reserach well (combined with your above studies / observations).
Ng Song Lin, Dean
(Millionaire Akan Datang)

PersianCat - Meooow !!! said...

It can be very exciting indeed. You can earn big or lose big. However, I play earnings on a case-to-case basis. Anyway, for CEPH, the earnings announcement is on 2 May 06. With the approval of Vivitrol and the upcoming earnings, it might get the excuse needed for the price to correct itself after being oversold recently. How the stock react after earnings will depend on a few factors. Will need to assess the situation nearer to the date.

- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)


With the recent breakout (hopefully, it continues) due to