Tuesday, May 02, 2006

New Play - SIL & ORCL

SIL
Read from Briefing.com about SIL today:

12:32
SIL Apex Silver Mines: shares plunge on concern for Bolivia mine project- Bloomberg (14.25 -6.75) -Update-

I checked the charts and the stock was already trying to recover its losses (It lost $6.75 at the time Briefing reported). Typically, with this kind of news, the market tends to over-react and the time value for the options would be very expensive. As such, I long the stock. I choose to play May $15.00 / $12.50 Bull Put Credit Spread for $1.00 when the stock is about $15.05. My sold leg was $1.75 or 11.63% of the price of the stock at that time (very expensive for a May At-The-Money option of a stock of just $15).

If the stock remains above $15 on expiration Friday. I get to keep all the $1.00 credit (or 66.7% profit) that I collected.



An hour later, Briefing.com reported:

13:32
SIL Apex Silver Mines responds to unusual trading activity in its ordinary shares (16.50 -4.50) -Update-

Co responded to the unusual trading activity in its ordinary shares. The co believes this activity is related to recent events in Bolivia concerning the country's planned nationalization of its hydrocarbon industry. The co is not aware of any plan by the government of Bolivia to follow a similar policy in mining. The co was particularly encouraged by recent statements made by the Bolivian Minister of Mines and Metallurgy in which he emphasized that "the mining policy does not contemplate nationalization and even less incorporation of private companies such as San Cristobal." The co is developing its 100%-owned San Cristobal silver-zinc-lead project in southwestern Bolivia. The project is expected to commence production in the third quarter 2007.

The stock closed at $17.70 today.


There are conflicting reports about Bolivia from CNBC. It was reported that the Bolivia government might extend the nationalisation of Oil companies to Mining companies too. Let see what happen tommorrow.


ORCL
The stochastic cross-over, RSI and candlestick charting showed a reversal. Played ORCL Jun $15 Put (in-the-money) on Monday.
Target 1 = $14.00
Target 2 = $12.92 (also 61.8% Fibonacci level)
Stop Loss = $15.21




- PersianCat04 (Millonaire-in-progress)

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