80-year cycle or 60-year Cycle ?

As traders, we always like to look for patterns in the charts - as patterns do repeat itself sometimes. When it do, we want to be ready to capture the moment and ride on the trend/wave.

At this juncture, we are now almost at the crossroads. The U.S. market is now going through either a 80-year cycle or a 60-year cycle.

The pattern for the 80-year cycle is similar to the 1929 October crash with its peak in 3rd September 1929. The market then went into depression for almost 3 years. It bottomed in mid 1932. If we are drawing a parallel, it would then be year 2012.


On the other hand, the market could enter a 60 year cycle. In 1949, the world economy comes out of the ashes after World War 2. The market actually bottomed in 1942. After the war, most if not all countries, flooded the market with liquidity even though they cannot afford to do it. In 1949, the market bottomed in Jun and thereafter the market is very bullish.


So which pattern would it be? Either one of the two or none at all. I will elaborate more in my presentation at the Online Traders Club (Singapore) meeting on Sat, 19 September 2009. Among the stuff I will touch would be the relationship between US$, U.S. equities market and commodities. Registration to the talk can be done at www.eoptionsclub.com.

PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)