For SPY, we need to look for a confirmation candle before we can short the SPY. The target is way below the Feb 2010 Low.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Friday, February 19, 2010
61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Fulfilled
The recent rally since the hammer on 5 Feb 2010 had fulfilled a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (more than the requred 50% retracement) for the Dow and Nasdaq Composite Index. For S&P500 index, the retracement is almost 61.8%. The major index is now free to continue with its downtrend (assumption is that the Jan 2010 high is the start of the big correction).
For SPY, we need to look for a confirmation candle before we can short the SPY. The target is way below the Feb 2010 Low.
For SPY, we need to look for a confirmation candle before we can short the SPY. The target is way below the Feb 2010 Low.
4 comments:
Look at the weekly chart for all the indices. How do you come to the conclusion that the rally is over?
And why on earth does this have to be a rally and not a retracement?
I chose to disagree with you.
Let's watch the playout.
Hi Rafee, did you use Fibo extension for yout target?
Don,
Agreed, that if you based on the weekly chart, the uptrend is not over. But I am looking for a major retracement from the current uptrend from March 2009 Low to Jan 2010 High.
Unless my assumptions are wrong (see previous postings), the SPY may break Feb 2010 Low soon.
unless the previous higher low is taken out at least once, trying to catch the top is not in the best interest of a trader. Many have tried to nail the turning point since may, using MACD, CCI, Stochastic etc to justify why they think the market is ripe to short. Well, i have taken the "safer" route of riding with the wave and letting go when reaching the resistance point. I only pick up after seeing the resistance broken and enter on retracement. I must say i am surprised at how resilient the rally has been....Bravo!
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