As the market tanked yesterday (30 May), I closed my NEM and BHP to lock-in what little profit I made.
BHP
Closed my BHP Aug06 45 Call for a 1.8% profit over 4 trading days.
NEM
Closed my NEM Jul06 52.5 Call for a 9.7% profit over 4 trading days.
QQQQ - New Play
I bought the QQQQ Aug 39 Put for $1.00 on Friday (towards end of day) when the QQQQ was at $39.45. I played this purely based on intuition. I am trying to trust my intuition. I figured if I am wrong and the market when up on Tuesday (yesterday) then I would close my position and lose probably 5 - 10 cts as my option is out-of-money. As it turned out, the market tanked yesterday. The option closed with a 45% paper gain at closing time yesterday. On hindsight, I should have just lock-in my profit. Will try to close this position today.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Thursday, May 25, 2006
Updates (as at mid day 25 May (ET))
My NEM and BHP play was negative yesterday. In fact, I was too engrossed with my ES play (it was very profitable) that by the time I checked the NEM and BHP status again, the NEM exceeded my mental stop loss (last Monday's low). I was prepared to convert it into a credit spread. But the market was already starting to recover from its low. As such, I kept my positions.
As it turned out, the market recovers today. My targets for NEM and BHP remain intact at 52-week high. My stop loss would be their recent lows.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
As it turned out, the market recovers today. My targets for NEM and BHP remain intact at 52-week high. My stop loss would be their recent lows.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
New Play - NEM, BHP
The market attempted to recover from its recent fall yesterday. The market might just rebound and continue to rebound. However, I'm still bearish about the overall market. I would leave it to the Bulls to fight it out with the Bears. As most of the stocks have lost a fair bit from its highs, these stocks need to rebound before it can continue its downward trend. How much it recovers, is yet to be seen. The DOW might even reached all-time high.
In this rebound, I would play Call on the Mining and maybe Energy sectors only. My new play are NEM and BHP - both are mining stocks with a big chunk of gold play (among the biggest players in the world). I figure that should the market burst for good, gold stocks or gold mining stocks would have a good chance of appreciating further. China is also preparing a gold ETF for its citizens. A gold ETF (exchange traded funds) would be required to be backed by physical gold. Furthermore, the Chinese Government were also reported to have been advised to convert some of its US$ reserve to gold. As such, more demand for gold from China could be expected. Anyway, the charts for mining and gold stocks were showing bullish plays (e.g. stochastics crossover, low RSI, break 38.2 or 61.8% Fibonacci level, etc)
Even if the market did not burst, the mining stocks are due for correction.
I played NEM Jul06 52.5 Call and BHP Aug06 45 Call yesterday. My targets are their 52-week high and the stop-loss would be their last Monday's lows.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
In this rebound, I would play Call on the Mining and maybe Energy sectors only. My new play are NEM and BHP - both are mining stocks with a big chunk of gold play (among the biggest players in the world). I figure that should the market burst for good, gold stocks or gold mining stocks would have a good chance of appreciating further. China is also preparing a gold ETF for its citizens. A gold ETF (exchange traded funds) would be required to be backed by physical gold. Furthermore, the Chinese Government were also reported to have been advised to convert some of its US$ reserve to gold. As such, more demand for gold from China could be expected. Anyway, the charts for mining and gold stocks were showing bullish plays (e.g. stochastics crossover, low RSI, break 38.2 or 61.8% Fibonacci level, etc)
Even if the market did not burst, the mining stocks are due for correction.
I played NEM Jul06 52.5 Call and BHP Aug06 45 Call yesterday. My targets are their 52-week high and the stop-loss would be their last Monday's lows.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Thursday, May 18, 2006
Market Outlook
The overall U.S. market needs a major correction The writings are on the wall:
Rise in commodities (energy, metals, corn, etc)
Rise in commodities will indefinitely lead to a rise in basic materials which would lead to a rise in cost of doing business; rise in cost of goods and services; lower revenue and profits for most industries (except energy, metals, etc) and rise in inflation.
Rise in interest rate
The rise in inflation would compel the Feds to increase its interest rate further. This will rattle the stock market again. The interest rate hike would further hurt the housing market. We have seen in Singapore and Asia, how a high interest rate badly hurt the housing market. But in the U.S., to make matters worst, they allow 100% loan. If the price of their property drops, they will face a double loss - the outstanding loan is more than the value of their property but if they keep the property, they may not be able to afford the repayment as the interest rate increases.
Trade & Budget Deficit
Needless to say, the U.S. budget & trade deficit are extremely high. But some Republican still feel that the deficits are in good hands.
My 2 cts worth
For the major correction to happen, what the market needs is a trigger to prick the stock market bubble. What we see for the last 5 bearish days may just be a precursor of what is going to happen. I believe the trigger had not been pulled. The trigger could be anything from a huge pullout of funds from the U.S., dumping of U.S. dollars, new war in Middle East, U.S. housing market crash, oil price hike to US$150 per barrel, major terrorist attack, etc. Typically, the trigger is pulled when the market is least expecting it.
A classic scenario would be that the market rally after the recent fall. Perhaps, starting today. The rally could even bring the DOW index to its highest level ever (it was very close to achieve that before the recent market fall). Confidence in the market would be high. Conflicting market indicators were also interpreted as bullish news. About two weeks after the DOW breaks new highs, the trigger is pulled. Thereafter, all hell break loose.
As traders, we trade according to our plan. Do I plan for such a scenario? Yes. My recent positions had been mostly short positions. Should the market tanked again, my best instrument would be to short the eMinis (ES or ER2) as they do not have the uptick rule (unlike stocks or options). I have shorted ES during the last five days (after a long break trading eMinis - as I need to tighten up the trading rules for playing ES). It has been very rewarding - for which, I am thankful.
The market is starting soon. Till next time.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Rise in commodities (energy, metals, corn, etc)
Rise in commodities will indefinitely lead to a rise in basic materials which would lead to a rise in cost of doing business; rise in cost of goods and services; lower revenue and profits for most industries (except energy, metals, etc) and rise in inflation.
Rise in interest rate
The rise in inflation would compel the Feds to increase its interest rate further. This will rattle the stock market again. The interest rate hike would further hurt the housing market. We have seen in Singapore and Asia, how a high interest rate badly hurt the housing market. But in the U.S., to make matters worst, they allow 100% loan. If the price of their property drops, they will face a double loss - the outstanding loan is more than the value of their property but if they keep the property, they may not be able to afford the repayment as the interest rate increases.
Trade & Budget Deficit
Needless to say, the U.S. budget & trade deficit are extremely high. But some Republican still feel that the deficits are in good hands.
My 2 cts worth
For the major correction to happen, what the market needs is a trigger to prick the stock market bubble. What we see for the last 5 bearish days may just be a precursor of what is going to happen. I believe the trigger had not been pulled. The trigger could be anything from a huge pullout of funds from the U.S., dumping of U.S. dollars, new war in Middle East, U.S. housing market crash, oil price hike to US$150 per barrel, major terrorist attack, etc. Typically, the trigger is pulled when the market is least expecting it.
A classic scenario would be that the market rally after the recent fall. Perhaps, starting today. The rally could even bring the DOW index to its highest level ever (it was very close to achieve that before the recent market fall). Confidence in the market would be high. Conflicting market indicators were also interpreted as bullish news. About two weeks after the DOW breaks new highs, the trigger is pulled. Thereafter, all hell break loose.
As traders, we trade according to our plan. Do I plan for such a scenario? Yes. My recent positions had been mostly short positions. Should the market tanked again, my best instrument would be to short the eMinis (ES or ER2) as they do not have the uptick rule (unlike stocks or options). I have shorted ES during the last five days (after a long break trading eMinis - as I need to tighten up the trading rules for playing ES). It has been very rewarding - for which, I am thankful.
The market is starting soon. Till next time.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Updates (as at 17 May 06)
The market had tanked for the past 5 days and it had served me well as I had shorted the S&P500 eMini (ES). ES is a fast game and one can make or lose money fast. I would not encourage this play to anyone unless they have good discipline and strictly follow the rules of the game.
Anyway, I am getting a hard time looking for stocks to short for options play. Most stocks had tanked and I am not willing to long a stock in the current weak environment. Perhaps, the energy and commodities stocks will be providing good opportunity for long plays soon.
DELL
Closed my Aug 25 Put on Monday. Made 43.5% over 4 days.
Closed my sold leg May 25 Call for $0.10 on Wednesday. This is the repair strategy for my DELL 27.5 Call (which is now fully paid for (free + some profits) by my profits from the sold legs - sold twice).
HOT
Closed my Aug 60 Put on Monday for a profit of 26.7% over 3 days.
WYE
Closed my Jul 50 Put on Monday at a loss of 24.4% over 4 days.
XSNX
Still holding on. Target date to liquidate is still July 2006 (awaiting the outcome of their marketing campaign).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Anyway, I am getting a hard time looking for stocks to short for options play. Most stocks had tanked and I am not willing to long a stock in the current weak environment. Perhaps, the energy and commodities stocks will be providing good opportunity for long plays soon.
DELL
Closed my Aug 25 Put on Monday. Made 43.5% over 4 days.
Closed my sold leg May 25 Call for $0.10 on Wednesday. This is the repair strategy for my DELL 27.5 Call (which is now fully paid for (free + some profits) by my profits from the sold legs - sold twice).
HOT
Closed my Aug 60 Put on Monday for a profit of 26.7% over 3 days.
WYE
Closed my Jul 50 Put on Monday at a loss of 24.4% over 4 days.
XSNX
Still holding on. Target date to liquidate is still July 2006 (awaiting the outcome of their marketing campaign).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Friday, May 12, 2006
Updates (As at 11 May)
Under My Radar
The following stccks are under my watch list for potential reversal (just waiting for confirmation candle).
The following stccks are under my watch list for potential reversal (just waiting for confirmation candle).
- GM
- SNDK (had ascending triangle - waiting for breakout with good volume spike)
- CMCSA
My Portfolio
My current portfolio updates (over the last one week)
- NVDA Put (Closed for 33.3% profit over 5 days)
- ORCL Put (Closed for 21.4% over 6 days)
- TXN Put (Closed for 3.2% loss. Closed too early)
- GM Bear Call credit spread (Closed my sold leg on Tuesday when the stock strongly rally and let my bought leg ride the rally. Closed my bought leg with small loss in total. Closed too early)
- SIL Bull Put Spread (Closed my sold leg with profit. My bought leg is now free - paid for by the profits made in the sold leg. See also my SIL Play)
- DELL Put and Bear Call (Still in play. See my DELL Repair Strategy Play - paper profit)
- HOT Put (Still in play. - paper profit)
- WYE Put (Closed for 20.5% over 1 day. Bought back the Jul 50 Put at lower price. Still in play. - paper profit)
- XSNX (See my XSNX Play - paper loss)
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
XSNX
Left: Intraday Chart Right: Daily ChartXSNX tanked with the market yesterday. As the stock dropped below $1.00, it was about to test SMA200. As it reversed after 10:00am ET, I bought more XSNX at $0.99 (thus lowering my average cost). As it turned out, the stock reversed convincingly and closed at $1.33 with an large volume. It formed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday. The stcchastics and RSI also showed a reversal (upwards). I would pick up more above yesterday's high and release them once I achieved a reasonable return.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
DELL - Repair Strategy
I've been playing Put on DELL for some time. For some strange reasons (we do make mistakes!), I bought a Jun 27.5 Call for $0.60 (way out-of-the-money) on 28 Apr. The stock keep going south. Sold May 25 Call for $0.95 (when the stock price was $25.31) on 3 May - thereby converting it into a credit spread. If the stock falls below $25 on expiration Friday, I would keep the $0.95 premium and still get to sell again the Jun $25 Call if needed.
Then the stock crept up (instead of down!). Just when the charts showed a strong bullish play, trading for DELL was halted on 8 May. DELL gave another downside guidance. Yesterday 's downslide saved my play. Yesterday, I bought back my sold leg (for a profit of course) and sold again at $0.70. My Jun 27.5 Call is almost free now (paid by the profits made from my sold leg). Since I am still very bearish on DELL, I also bought the Aug 25 Put for $1.15. DELL closed at $25.20 on Tuesday.
Targets remains at $23.26 and $21.90 (4-yr low).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Trading Halt Play - ARIA
Played this on 4 May 06 (intra-day). I called it Trading Halt Day (for lack of better term). Read from Briefing.com at 9:55 am (ET) saying that trading for ARIA is halted.
Then read the following from Briefing.com:
04-May-06 11:22 ET
Ariad Pharm confirms jury rules in favor of ARIA and co-plaintiffs in Lilly NF-(kappa)B patent infringement lawsuit (ARIA) 5.52 : Co confirms that the jury in the US District Court for the District of Massachusetts has found in favor of the plaintiffs in their lawsuit against Eli Lilly (LLY) alleging infringement of the plaintiffs' U.S. patent covering methods of treating human disease by regulating NF-(kappa)B cell-signaling activity. The jury ruled unanimously in favor of the plaintiffs in finding that the claims of the NF-(kappa)B patent asserted in the lawsuit are valid and infringed by Lilly with respect to Lilly's osteoporosis drug, Evista, and Lilly's septic shock drug, Xigris. The jury awarded damages to the plaintiffs in the amount of approx $65.2 mln, based on the jury's determination of a reasonable royalty rate of 2.3% to be paid by Lilly to the plaintiffs based on U.S. sales of Evista and Xigris from filing of the lawsuit on June 25, 2002 through Feb 28, 2006. The jury awarded further damages on an ongoing basis, in amounts to be determined, equal to 2.3% of U.S. sales of Evista and Xigris through the year 2019, when the patent expires. The co-plaintiffs are Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research, and The President and Fellows of Harvard College. (ARIA is halted.)
I expected the stock to gap up then drop somewhere mid-way. Since this was going to be a very quick play, I was had prepared my 2 PCs for the play. At 11.50 ET, trading resumed. The stock behaved as expected. I short the stock as the stock came down after it gap-up. Made about $0.33 per share on this play. On hindsight, I should have closed some position (lock-in some profit) and left some to ride the wave instead of closing all positions. Anyway, it is still good money (about 4.5% returns for less than 10 mins effort). Below are the intraday 2-mins chart (on the left) and the daily chart (on the right) for reference.
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
New Play - SIL & ORCL
SIL
Read from Briefing.com about SIL today:
12:32
SIL Apex Silver Mines: shares plunge on concern for Bolivia mine project- Bloomberg (14.25 -6.75) -Update-
I checked the charts and the stock was already trying to recover its losses (It lost $6.75 at the time Briefing reported). Typically, with this kind of news, the market tends to over-react and the time value for the options would be very expensive. As such, I long the stock. I choose to play May $15.00 / $12.50 Bull Put Credit Spread for $1.00 when the stock is about $15.05. My sold leg was $1.75 or 11.63% of the price of the stock at that time (very expensive for a May At-The-Money option of a stock of just $15).
If the stock remains above $15 on expiration Friday. I get to keep all the $1.00 credit (or 66.7% profit) that I collected.
Read from Briefing.com about SIL today:
12:32
SIL Apex Silver Mines: shares plunge on concern for Bolivia mine project- Bloomberg (14.25 -6.75) -Update-
I checked the charts and the stock was already trying to recover its losses (It lost $6.75 at the time Briefing reported). Typically, with this kind of news, the market tends to over-react and the time value for the options would be very expensive. As such, I long the stock. I choose to play May $15.00 / $12.50 Bull Put Credit Spread for $1.00 when the stock is about $15.05. My sold leg was $1.75 or 11.63% of the price of the stock at that time (very expensive for a May At-The-Money option of a stock of just $15).
If the stock remains above $15 on expiration Friday. I get to keep all the $1.00 credit (or 66.7% profit) that I collected.
An hour later, Briefing.com reported:
13:32
SIL Apex Silver Mines responds to unusual trading activity in its ordinary shares (16.50 -4.50) -Update-
Co responded to the unusual trading activity in its ordinary shares. The co believes this activity is related to recent events in Bolivia concerning the country's planned nationalization of its hydrocarbon industry. The co is not aware of any plan by the government of Bolivia to follow a similar policy in mining. The co was particularly encouraged by recent statements made by the Bolivian Minister of Mines and Metallurgy in which he emphasized that "the mining policy does not contemplate nationalization and even less incorporation of private companies such as San Cristobal." The co is developing its 100%-owned San Cristobal silver-zinc-lead project in southwestern Bolivia. The project is expected to commence production in the third quarter 2007.
The stock closed at $17.70 today.
There are conflicting reports about Bolivia from CNBC. It was reported that the Bolivia government might extend the nationalisation of Oil companies to Mining companies too. Let see what happen tommorrow.
ORCL
The stochastic cross-over, RSI and candlestick charting showed a reversal. Played ORCL Jun $15 Put (in-the-money) on Monday.
Target 1 = $14.00
Target 2 = $12.92 (also 61.8% Fibonacci level)
Stop Loss = $15.21
- PersianCat04 (Millonaire-in-progress)
Updates
I am back after a lull of a few days. Been busy attending a course and backtesting a mathematical formula (wow! sound Chimp!! Ha! Ha!) for projecting the resistance and support levels for S&P500 futures (ES). So far, it looks good. Need more work on this though.
DELL
DELL continued its drop. However, I had closed my position in my May $27.50 Put on last Thursday for 29.6% profit. At that point, DELL plunged seems to have lost its steam.
DELL made a rally on Friday morning. Thinking that the stock had reversed, I played a Jun $27.50 Call (out-of-money). Bad mistake – should have waited for confirmation candle before playing the reversal. Anyway, my loss would be limited but I shall monitor closely and decide later whether to keep or close my position.
GM
My position is still negative. It announced its sales figures today. It was below consensus but the stock rally with the news. (This play is not Fun!).
TXN
This stock is still trending south though slowly. My Jun 35 Put is about breakeven (loss some of its time value)
DELL
DELL continued its drop. However, I had closed my position in my May $27.50 Put on last Thursday for 29.6% profit. At that point, DELL plunged seems to have lost its steam.
DELL made a rally on Friday morning. Thinking that the stock had reversed, I played a Jun $27.50 Call (out-of-money). Bad mistake – should have waited for confirmation candle before playing the reversal. Anyway, my loss would be limited but I shall monitor closely and decide later whether to keep or close my position.
GM
My position is still negative. It announced its sales figures today. It was below consensus but the stock rally with the news. (This play is not Fun!).
TXN
This stock is still trending south though slowly. My Jun 35 Put is about breakeven (loss some of its time value)
XSNX
Uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Friday, April 28, 2006
Under My Radar - IGPG
Extracted from "The Natural Contrarion"
Early Contrarians who buy Ignis Petroleum now below $1.50 will witness a 200% gain in weeks and over 1,200% in less than 24 months.
Barnett Shale Prospect, Texas
Ignis Petroleum reports that its Inglish Sisters #3 well in the Barnett Shale has begun production after successful completion. The Inglish Sisters #3 began recording revenue on April 7, 2006 and, as of April 17, 2006, has produced 1,300 barrels of oil and 7.1 million cubic feet of gas. Ultimate recovery and reserve estimates will be determined based on analysis of production data obtained in the coming months.
The Inglish Sisters #3 well is the first of three wells in which Ignis is currently participating in the Barnett Shale. The other two, the Powell #1 well, located in Montague County, Texas and the Powell #2 well, located in Cooke County, Texas, are scheduled to be fully completed shortly.
Acom A-6 Project, Texas
Ignis Petroleum recently announced the discovery of oil and gas on its Acom A-6 project with the successful completion of the A-6 well. Ignis reports that the A-6 well is currently producing oil and gas at an average daily rate of 120 barrels of oil and 460 thousand cubic feet of gas.
IGPG’s management team is placing the final touches on a pending agreement with industry behemoth Kerr-McGee (KMG – NYSE) on an expansive drill campaign for the Acom A-6 project. Surrounded by highly successful drilling campaigns, reserve estimates on this prospect are reported to be an incredible 9 BILLION cubic feet of natural gas.
In fact, one nearby blockbuster well, the Tex Miss, has produced over 3.4 BILLION cubic feet of gas in just 18 months of initial production. Kerr McGee/Ignis Petroleum are focusing on what is believed to be a continuance of this expansive petroleum-bearing structure. A major hit on the Acom A-6 would be an immediate “Company Maker” for Ignis Petroleum – one that would likely send the IGPG share-price exponentially higher.
Barnett Crossroads Area Map
The green arrow indicates the location of the prospect. Just a mile to the east, more than a million barrels of oil has been produced from a moderate sized structure that is about 20% larger than the prospective structure. Less than a mile south and one mile to the north, two small structures have produced over 200,000 barrels of oil each. More than a million barrels of oil has been produced from a moderate-sized structure to the northwest of the prospect.
Barnett Crossroads Project, Alabama
Ignis has now commenced operations on this relatively low-risk oil prospect with the drilling of the 19-1 #1 well. Upon successful completion, IGPG will own a 75% working interest, or 52.5% net revenue interest, in the well. Ignis expects to reach its full target depth of around 14,500 feet in the coming weeks.
Recent analysis suggests that this property could produce in excess of 500,000 BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) — that’s over $35 MILLION in potential revenues at current oil prices. The Gravel Church field to the east of the property has produced in excess of 1 million barrels of oil. Less than a mile south and one mile to the north, two structures have produced over 200,000 barrels of oil each.
Surrounded by successful drilling, and with an expected production rate of 300 barrels of oil per day, the Barnett Crossroads project represents a relatively low-risk oil target that should translate to a significantly higher IGPG share-price in the coming months.
North Wright Prospect, Louisiana
Seismic data suggests that the North Wright Prospect could contain over 118 BILLION cubic feet of gas. That level of natural gas production has the potential to generate a staggering $826 MILLION at current natural gas prices of around $7 per thousand cubic feet.
The North Wright Field is surrounded by Big-Money drilling campaigns. Similar production is currently underway at two fields within seven miles of the prospect. The Leleux Field, located just seven miles to the east along the same geologic formation, has produced over 200 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of gas with an estimated recovery of over 400 Bcf of gas. The Wright Field lies just five miles to the south and has produced over 64 Bcf of gas from just two wells over the last five years.
The pending development plan on the company’s North Wright Prospect estimates four wells (one well per year) to extract the potential natural gas reserves. The Ignis team projects a first year cash flow (net royalty interest) of over $20 million – which I project will translate to a major portfolio win for early IGPG shareholders.
Crimson Bayou Prospect, Louisiana
IGPG’s Crimson Bayou prospect, located in Iberville Parish, Louisiana, is expected to commence drilling in July. Ignis has signed a participation agreement with major energy producer Range Production Company (RRC – NYSE) on this prospect. Upon successful completion of the first well, Ignis will own 25% of the working interest.
Ignis Petroleum boasts a seasoned management team of industry professionals that command the attention of the “Big Players.” By teaming up with top-tier producers like Range Production Company, Ignis Petroleum is setting the foundation for long-term oil and gas production success.
Early Contrarians who buy Ignis Petroleum now below $1.50 will witness a 200% gain in weeks and over 1,200% in less than 24 months.
Barnett Shale Prospect, Texas
Ignis Petroleum reports that its Inglish Sisters #3 well in the Barnett Shale has begun production after successful completion. The Inglish Sisters #3 began recording revenue on April 7, 2006 and, as of April 17, 2006, has produced 1,300 barrels of oil and 7.1 million cubic feet of gas. Ultimate recovery and reserve estimates will be determined based on analysis of production data obtained in the coming months.
The Inglish Sisters #3 well is the first of three wells in which Ignis is currently participating in the Barnett Shale. The other two, the Powell #1 well, located in Montague County, Texas and the Powell #2 well, located in Cooke County, Texas, are scheduled to be fully completed shortly.
Acom A-6 Project, Texas
Ignis Petroleum recently announced the discovery of oil and gas on its Acom A-6 project with the successful completion of the A-6 well. Ignis reports that the A-6 well is currently producing oil and gas at an average daily rate of 120 barrels of oil and 460 thousand cubic feet of gas.
IGPG’s management team is placing the final touches on a pending agreement with industry behemoth Kerr-McGee (KMG – NYSE) on an expansive drill campaign for the Acom A-6 project. Surrounded by highly successful drilling campaigns, reserve estimates on this prospect are reported to be an incredible 9 BILLION cubic feet of natural gas.
In fact, one nearby blockbuster well, the Tex Miss, has produced over 3.4 BILLION cubic feet of gas in just 18 months of initial production. Kerr McGee/Ignis Petroleum are focusing on what is believed to be a continuance of this expansive petroleum-bearing structure. A major hit on the Acom A-6 would be an immediate “Company Maker” for Ignis Petroleum – one that would likely send the IGPG share-price exponentially higher.
Barnett Crossroads Area Map
The green arrow indicates the location of the prospect. Just a mile to the east, more than a million barrels of oil has been produced from a moderate sized structure that is about 20% larger than the prospective structure. Less than a mile south and one mile to the north, two small structures have produced over 200,000 barrels of oil each. More than a million barrels of oil has been produced from a moderate-sized structure to the northwest of the prospect.
Barnett Crossroads Project, Alabama
Ignis has now commenced operations on this relatively low-risk oil prospect with the drilling of the 19-1 #1 well. Upon successful completion, IGPG will own a 75% working interest, or 52.5% net revenue interest, in the well. Ignis expects to reach its full target depth of around 14,500 feet in the coming weeks.
Recent analysis suggests that this property could produce in excess of 500,000 BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) — that’s over $35 MILLION in potential revenues at current oil prices. The Gravel Church field to the east of the property has produced in excess of 1 million barrels of oil. Less than a mile south and one mile to the north, two structures have produced over 200,000 barrels of oil each.
Surrounded by successful drilling, and with an expected production rate of 300 barrels of oil per day, the Barnett Crossroads project represents a relatively low-risk oil target that should translate to a significantly higher IGPG share-price in the coming months.
North Wright Prospect, Louisiana
Seismic data suggests that the North Wright Prospect could contain over 118 BILLION cubic feet of gas. That level of natural gas production has the potential to generate a staggering $826 MILLION at current natural gas prices of around $7 per thousand cubic feet.
The North Wright Field is surrounded by Big-Money drilling campaigns. Similar production is currently underway at two fields within seven miles of the prospect. The Leleux Field, located just seven miles to the east along the same geologic formation, has produced over 200 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of gas with an estimated recovery of over 400 Bcf of gas. The Wright Field lies just five miles to the south and has produced over 64 Bcf of gas from just two wells over the last five years.
The pending development plan on the company’s North Wright Prospect estimates four wells (one well per year) to extract the potential natural gas reserves. The Ignis team projects a first year cash flow (net royalty interest) of over $20 million – which I project will translate to a major portfolio win for early IGPG shareholders.
Crimson Bayou Prospect, Louisiana
IGPG’s Crimson Bayou prospect, located in Iberville Parish, Louisiana, is expected to commence drilling in July. Ignis has signed a participation agreement with major energy producer Range Production Company (RRC – NYSE) on this prospect. Upon successful completion of the first well, Ignis will own 25% of the working interest.
Ignis Petroleum boasts a seasoned management team of industry professionals that command the attention of the “Big Players.” By teaming up with top-tier producers like Range Production Company, Ignis Petroleum is setting the foundation for long-term oil and gas production success.
Under My Radar - LDIS
Leadis Tech
Extracted from Briefing.com
LDIS can be described as an IPO bust as the co was poorly managed causing multiple downward estimate revisions. It's now well below its $14 offering price. However, the stock looks like a good turnaround play thanks to 1) new management; 2) its Q1 report; 3) strong balance sheet; and 4) the rolling out of new products, especially thin film transistor liquid crystal displays, or TFT LCDs. A stop loss at support in the $5.25 area makes sense.
On 25 Apr, Leadis Tech reported that its earnings misses by $0.02, ex items; Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.06); revenues rose 107% year/year to $24.1 mln vs the $21.2 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $28-32 mln vs. $21.80 mln consensus.
The stock gapped up the next day but retraced some back yesterday. I am waiting for the stock to form a higher low before playing this stock.
- PersianCat04 (Milionaire-in-progress).
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Updates - 26 Apr 06
RMBS
My May $45 Put did extremely well and was deep in-the-money. The stock bottomed at $37.70 (my target is $38.00) around 11:45 am (ET) with a spike in volume (5-mins chart). Sold my May $45 Put for $7.50 when the stock seems to reverse shortly after (bought for $4.10, 89.9% profit over 3 days). While the stock could still go down further to $36.00 (next support level, also the SMA50), I guess that the stock would probably need a rest before moving south again (if it want to).
The movement of the stock over the last few weeks is a classic “Buy on rumour and sell on news” pattern.
SNDK
The stock gave a bullish performance again today. The stock’s resistance level should be the lowest ($63.65) of the trade prior to earning announcement. It missed by a penny when it announced on 20 Apr after market closed. The stock dropped for two days thereafter but regained some of its losses over the past 2 days. It would not make sense for the stock to go beyond $63.65.
However, I am not willing to hold on as the stock is too bullish in behaviour. Closed my May 60 Put at a loss of 46.2%.
GM
GM received an analyst upgrade. My May credit spread is pretty negative. Will monitor this stock closely tomorrow.
DELL
My May $27.50 Put which I bought yesterday is showing decent paper profit as DELL continued with its slide.
TXN
TXN stock slided wiping off yesterday’s gain. My Jun $35 Put is uneventful.
XSNX
Uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
News from XSNX
Tue, 25 Apr 2006 19:23:20 -0700
Power Glass(TM) Developer, XsunX, Begins Marketing Phase;Joe Grimes to Present at the National Energy Marketers Association2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference
Irvine, CA, April 25, 2006 - XsunX, Inc., (XSNX:OB) will present the benefits of the company’s thin-film solar technology systems for use in the development and delivery of an array of new power sources this week in Washington, D.C. at the 2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference sponsored by the National Energy Marketers Association. During the conference, which will take place April 25th and 26th at the Marriott at Metro Center, XsunX Chief Operating Officer Mr. Joseph Grimes will provide potential licensees information about the company’s flexible thin-film photovoltaic capabilities, including Power GlassTM, an innovative thin-film solar technology that is intended to allow glass windows to produce electricity from the power of the sun.
According to Tom Djokovich, CEO, this is an important step in the company’s development cycle. "The electrical energy industry is searching for the next generation of power production alternatives to reduce the complexity and cost of delivering energy to a growing global demand for power. As a developer of thin-film solar energy technologies, we are focused on providing improved solar cell designs and manufacturing techniques offering energy marketers and producers opportunities to develop new markets and expand business opportunities. With our deliverables in sight now is the time to begin a meaningful dialog with the people who can help bring Power Glass and our other technologies to the marketplace; and this year’s National Energy Restructuring Conference is an excellent venue for launching that effort."
Power Glass(TM) Developer, XsunX, Begins Marketing Phase;Joe Grimes to Present at the National Energy Marketers Association2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference
Irvine, CA, April 25, 2006 - XsunX, Inc., (XSNX:OB) will present the benefits of the company’s thin-film solar technology systems for use in the development and delivery of an array of new power sources this week in Washington, D.C. at the 2006 National Energy Restructuring Conference sponsored by the National Energy Marketers Association. During the conference, which will take place April 25th and 26th at the Marriott at Metro Center, XsunX Chief Operating Officer Mr. Joseph Grimes will provide potential licensees information about the company’s flexible thin-film photovoltaic capabilities, including Power GlassTM, an innovative thin-film solar technology that is intended to allow glass windows to produce electricity from the power of the sun.
According to Tom Djokovich, CEO, this is an important step in the company’s development cycle. "The electrical energy industry is searching for the next generation of power production alternatives to reduce the complexity and cost of delivering energy to a growing global demand for power. As a developer of thin-film solar energy technologies, we are focused on providing improved solar cell designs and manufacturing techniques offering energy marketers and producers opportunities to develop new markets and expand business opportunities. With our deliverables in sight now is the time to begin a meaningful dialog with the people who can help bring Power Glass and our other technologies to the marketplace; and this year’s National Energy Restructuring Conference is an excellent venue for launching that effort."
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Update - 25 Apr 06
DELL
Closed my May $27.50 Put for $1.60 (I bought it for $0.55 . 191% profit over 4 days).
Bought back May $27.50 Put for $1.35 (now having 2nd thoughts - could have just move on to another stock). The stock might just reversed (looking at the chart, it need a confirmation candle for the reversal play). Will use a tight stop loss (perhaps $27.00) for this play tommorrow.
RMBS
The stock did very well dropping $3.03 today and closed at $41.47. My May $45 Put could have done better if not because of the volatile time value decay yesterday and today. Anyway, I should still be thankful. My target of $38 still remains. On hindsight, I should have played credit spread instead.
XSNX
The stock gained $0.27 today to end above $2.00. I have played this stock a number of times already. My current play is now positive again.
GM
Uneventful.
TXN & SNDK
Both stocks are against me today. Will monitor very closely tommorrow.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Update - 24 Apr 06
TXN – New Play
The stochastics and RSI showed that the stock turned bearish. Bought TXN Jun 35 Put.
Target 1 = $32.91 (also Fibonacci Level of 38.2%)
Target 2 = $30.75 (Fib Level of 61.8%)
GM – New Play
GM seems to be trading in a range. Played Bear Call Spread (in-the-money) May 20 and 22.50 Call. Will close my sold leg when the stock is around $19.20.
RMBS – New Play
Read from Briefing.com that the trading of RMBS is halted. Then the news came:
13:06
RMBS Rambus: Case will be dragged further before there is a resolution - BWS Financial (38.33 -0.26) -Update-
BWS Financial notes the jury, in the RMBS v Hynix Semi case, found that the DRAM patents in question are in valid and that Hynix should pay RMBS $306.4 mln in damages. The damages are a little higher than the $250 million they were expecting, but do not change their view on the proceedings. The firm had been expecting RMBS to win the case and set precedence for the remaining trials that RMBS is involved in. They would expect Hynix to appeal the ruling to either reverse the ruling or reduce the penalty. The firm says the news is positive for RMBS, as it moves the co closer to finalizing the patent cases they are involved in. They currently est that damages from all the suits brought by RMBS, including the Hynix award, would total approximately $1.5 bln. Some ests are calling for as much as $2 bln. The firm says this is a great sum for a co like RMBS who is expected to generated revs of approximately $190 mln in 2006, but the co receiving this amount would be over the next three to five years. They find that the stock already reflects the news from Hynix and that there would be selling on the news now that the award is known. They underscore that by Hynix losing the case today does not mean that all legal avenues are closed for the co. They think that the case will be dragged further before there is a resolution.
Also heard from CNBC that one analyst said that the fair value of the stock is $38 (est. damages from all lawsuits included). The stock gapped up to more than $7 when trading commenced at 14:05. I expected the stock to yo-yo but should drop thereafter as it seems the market had somewhat priced-in the news. I bought May $45 Put for $4.10. (On hindsight, should have just played credit spread - time value depreciate very fast that day). Let see what happens today.
Target = $36.15
Stop Loss = $46.99
DELL – The stock did well. It extended its loss yesterday. My May $27.50 Put appreciated around 170%.
SNDK – The stock also did well. It extended its loss again yesterday.
AMD - Closed my Jul $32.50 Call with a small profit. I am not comfortable with this stock (nothing to do with technical analysis).
PALM – Closed my May $22.50 Put for a small profit before the stock rise up further. An analyst upgraded the stock today. Anyway, the stock does not seem to show much weakness over the past few days.
The stochastics and RSI showed that the stock turned bearish. Bought TXN Jun 35 Put.
Target 1 = $32.91 (also Fibonacci Level of 38.2%)
Target 2 = $30.75 (Fib Level of 61.8%)
GM – New Play
GM seems to be trading in a range. Played Bear Call Spread (in-the-money) May 20 and 22.50 Call. Will close my sold leg when the stock is around $19.20.
RMBS – New Play
Read from Briefing.com that the trading of RMBS is halted. Then the news came:
13:06
RMBS Rambus: Case will be dragged further before there is a resolution - BWS Financial (38.33 -0.26) -Update-
BWS Financial notes the jury, in the RMBS v Hynix Semi case, found that the DRAM patents in question are in valid and that Hynix should pay RMBS $306.4 mln in damages. The damages are a little higher than the $250 million they were expecting, but do not change their view on the proceedings. The firm had been expecting RMBS to win the case and set precedence for the remaining trials that RMBS is involved in. They would expect Hynix to appeal the ruling to either reverse the ruling or reduce the penalty. The firm says the news is positive for RMBS, as it moves the co closer to finalizing the patent cases they are involved in. They currently est that damages from all the suits brought by RMBS, including the Hynix award, would total approximately $1.5 bln. Some ests are calling for as much as $2 bln. The firm says this is a great sum for a co like RMBS who is expected to generated revs of approximately $190 mln in 2006, but the co receiving this amount would be over the next three to five years. They find that the stock already reflects the news from Hynix and that there would be selling on the news now that the award is known. They underscore that by Hynix losing the case today does not mean that all legal avenues are closed for the co. They think that the case will be dragged further before there is a resolution.
Also heard from CNBC that one analyst said that the fair value of the stock is $38 (est. damages from all lawsuits included). The stock gapped up to more than $7 when trading commenced at 14:05. I expected the stock to yo-yo but should drop thereafter as it seems the market had somewhat priced-in the news. I bought May $45 Put for $4.10. (On hindsight, should have just played credit spread - time value depreciate very fast that day). Let see what happens today.
Target = $36.15
Stop Loss = $46.99
DELL – The stock did well. It extended its loss yesterday. My May $27.50 Put appreciated around 170%.
SNDK – The stock also did well. It extended its loss again yesterday.
AMD - Closed my Jul $32.50 Call with a small profit. I am not comfortable with this stock (nothing to do with technical analysis).
PALM – Closed my May $22.50 Put for a small profit before the stock rise up further. An analyst upgraded the stock today. Anyway, the stock does not seem to show much weakness over the past few days.
XSNX - uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Saturday, April 22, 2006
21 Apr 06
Updates
SNDK
SNDK gapped down on opening (first day after earnings announcement). It closed at $60.05. As such, my Apr $65/70 Bear Call Credit Spread served me extremely well as my sold leg expired worthless. I pocketed all of the $180 premium that I collected. (Played only on Thursday - 1 day only!). 56.25% returns in 1 day.
AAPL
AAPL would probably do well in the next 2 quarters. However, at the moment, AAPL seems weak. Its moves after earnings results on Thursday and Friday are not convincing at all. I have made my money from AAPL in recent trades and I am willing to cut loss on my last trade. That was what I did. Sold my May $70 Call on Friday. Will continue to monitor this stock.
DELL
SNDK
SNDK gapped down on opening (first day after earnings announcement). It closed at $60.05. As such, my Apr $65/70 Bear Call Credit Spread served me extremely well as my sold leg expired worthless. I pocketed all of the $180 premium that I collected. (Played only on Thursday - 1 day only!). 56.25% returns in 1 day.
AAPL
AAPL would probably do well in the next 2 quarters. However, at the moment, AAPL seems weak. Its moves after earnings results on Thursday and Friday are not convincing at all. I have made my money from AAPL in recent trades and I am willing to cut loss on my last trade. That was what I did. Sold my May $70 Call on Friday. Will continue to monitor this stock.
DELL
DELL extend its loss and tanked on Friday with a spike in volume, closing at $27.01. My May $27.50 Put is now in-the-money ($$$) and appreciated more than 100%. The next target (using Fibonacci retracement level of 1.618) is around $26.00. Other targets include $23.26 and $21.90 (4-yr low).
XSNX, PALM, AMD - uneventful.
NEW PLAY - SNDK
Bgt May $60 Put (slightly out-of-the-money).
- Target = $52.15
- Stop Loss = $65.79
STOCKS UNDER MY RADAR
INTC, IR and TXN - Possible bearish (I am a little bearish over the overall market - as such, I will probably have more bearish play in the short term).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Thursday, April 20, 2006
New Play SNDK, DELL & CRDN
SNDK (Earnings Play on 20 Apr ATC)
Read the news (below) from Briefing.com today. Based on experience, as the stock had been going up abt $14 since abt 4 weeks ago. the market would not accept in-line earnings results positively. Played Bear Call credit spread Apr $65/70 Put (slightly in-the-money) for $1.80. I reckon that if this play is against me, my loss would be fairly limited and the sold leg time value of $2.41 would be almost wiped out by tommorrow (expiration Friday). If this play is on my side, I would probably keep most, if not all of the $1.80. After market closed today, the stock stayed around $62.10 (hopefully, it stays that way tommorrow).
14:24
SNDK SanDisk: earnings preview (65.29 +1.52) -Update-
SNDK is scheduled to report Q1 earnings today after the close with analysts expecting EPS of $0.45 on revs of $623 mln... C.E Unterberg anticipates that the co will report revs essentially in-line with the Street consensus of $627 mln, with higher megabyte shipments offsetting an aggressive period for retail price drops. However, the firm says G.M pressure may make Street consensus EPS of $0.45 more challenging to meet. Maintain MP view on stock during challenging NAND mkt period. They expect that total megabyte shipments in Q1 will exceed co's guidance for flat to up 10% sequentially, due to strong retail sales data and continued increases in the average density per card... Amtech is looking for EPS of $0.47 with revs of $622 mln. Their product rev calls for $540 mln and $82 mln in royalties. They are above the street for Q2, modeling EPS of $0.60 with revs of $785 mln vs. consensus EPS of $0.51 with revs of $683 mln. They are expecting a seasonally strong quarter following aggressive price cuts in Q1 with 30-50% bit growth. On the gross margin front, the firm says it should start improving with 300mm/70nm/MLC production and less severe pricing declines of approx 10-15% in Q2. Click here for technical levels of interest.
DELL (bearish)
DELL broke its 52-week low today. I have been bearish on DELL for sometime now. Its margin had been dropping and it is facing increased competition from Lenovo. Bought May $27.50 Put.
Target = $23.26
Stop Loss (Tight) = above $$28.60
CRDN (day trade)
Been monitoring this stock. Initially bgt the Jun 55 Put for swing play. But the paper profit is too good to lose (at its peak, it was $110). As the stock reversed back pretty fast, I lock-in my profits for $70. Tried to buy back the June Put but it was not filled. Will probably play this stock again tommorrow.
UPDATES
AAPL
My AAPL Bull Put spread did very well. Closed my sold leg of Apr $65 Put for $0.05 when the stock reversed south (play safe). My May $70 Call is still slightly negative. Have to check the market sentiment tommorrow and decide whether to keep playing this stock.
XSNX, AMD & PALM - uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Read the news (below) from Briefing.com today. Based on experience, as the stock had been going up abt $14 since abt 4 weeks ago. the market would not accept in-line earnings results positively. Played Bear Call credit spread Apr $65/70 Put (slightly in-the-money) for $1.80. I reckon that if this play is against me, my loss would be fairly limited and the sold leg time value of $2.41 would be almost wiped out by tommorrow (expiration Friday). If this play is on my side, I would probably keep most, if not all of the $1.80. After market closed today, the stock stayed around $62.10 (hopefully, it stays that way tommorrow).
14:24
SNDK SanDisk: earnings preview (65.29 +1.52) -Update-
SNDK is scheduled to report Q1 earnings today after the close with analysts expecting EPS of $0.45 on revs of $623 mln... C.E Unterberg anticipates that the co will report revs essentially in-line with the Street consensus of $627 mln, with higher megabyte shipments offsetting an aggressive period for retail price drops. However, the firm says G.M pressure may make Street consensus EPS of $0.45 more challenging to meet. Maintain MP view on stock during challenging NAND mkt period. They expect that total megabyte shipments in Q1 will exceed co's guidance for flat to up 10% sequentially, due to strong retail sales data and continued increases in the average density per card... Amtech is looking for EPS of $0.47 with revs of $622 mln. Their product rev calls for $540 mln and $82 mln in royalties. They are above the street for Q2, modeling EPS of $0.60 with revs of $785 mln vs. consensus EPS of $0.51 with revs of $683 mln. They are expecting a seasonally strong quarter following aggressive price cuts in Q1 with 30-50% bit growth. On the gross margin front, the firm says it should start improving with 300mm/70nm/MLC production and less severe pricing declines of approx 10-15% in Q2. Click here for technical levels of interest.
DELL (bearish)
DELL broke its 52-week low today. I have been bearish on DELL for sometime now. Its margin had been dropping and it is facing increased competition from Lenovo. Bought May $27.50 Put.
Target = $23.26
Stop Loss (Tight) = above $$28.60
CRDN (day trade)
Been monitoring this stock. Initially bgt the Jun 55 Put for swing play. But the paper profit is too good to lose (at its peak, it was $110). As the stock reversed back pretty fast, I lock-in my profits for $70. Tried to buy back the June Put but it was not filled. Will probably play this stock again tommorrow.
UPDATES
AAPL
My AAPL Bull Put spread did very well. Closed my sold leg of Apr $65 Put for $0.05 when the stock reversed south (play safe). My May $70 Call is still slightly negative. Have to check the market sentiment tommorrow and decide whether to keep playing this stock.
XSNX, AMD & PALM - uneventful.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Updates (last 2 days)
Market had a very strong rally on Tuesday and maintained its gain yesterday.
AAPL
My AAPL recovered some of its paper losses. Earnings results was announced after market closed. After hours summary from Briefing.com showed AAPL with a 4.4% rise in price. Hopefully, it performs as well when the market opens today. Jim Cramer "Mad Money" is bullish on AAPL (as of yesterday). My price target is still $73 and if it breaks convincingly, $75 (why $75? Don't ask me yet. I am still finding the answer. Anyway, I may just stick to the $73 target). My Bull Put credit spread on AAPL is already positive.
STOCKS UNDER MY RADAR (Reversal soon)
- RIMM (possible bullish play)
- CRDN (possible bearish play. Doji formed yesterday)
ON HINDSIGHT
Should have hang on to my bullish play on CEPH and place a stop-loss (though I made some profit b4 I closed this position). The technicals are still on my side and the set-up is still good when I let go. Fear overcame me. Lesson learnt.
BZH - I was right to have closed this position. The stock is like a yo-yo for the past 2 days. It may still go down though. Time to move on and play other stocks with better chart formation.
STX - I was right to close this PUT position. The stock was up, right till earnings announcement. Then it dropped. When I played STX, I played based on the charts, not knowing the earnings announcement is coming soon (should have checked earlier). Playing with earnings in mind create a new dimension to consider. I am right to play for the right reason.
- PersianCat04 (Milionaire-in-progress)
AAPL
My AAPL recovered some of its paper losses. Earnings results was announced after market closed. After hours summary from Briefing.com showed AAPL with a 4.4% rise in price. Hopefully, it performs as well when the market opens today. Jim Cramer "Mad Money" is bullish on AAPL (as of yesterday). My price target is still $73 and if it breaks convincingly, $75 (why $75? Don't ask me yet. I am still finding the answer. Anyway, I may just stick to the $73 target). My Bull Put credit spread on AAPL is already positive.
STOCKS UNDER MY RADAR (Reversal soon)
- RIMM (possible bullish play)
- CRDN (possible bearish play. Doji formed yesterday)
ON HINDSIGHT
Should have hang on to my bullish play on CEPH and place a stop-loss (though I made some profit b4 I closed this position). The technicals are still on my side and the set-up is still good when I let go. Fear overcame me. Lesson learnt.
BZH - I was right to have closed this position. The stock is like a yo-yo for the past 2 days. It may still go down though. Time to move on and play other stocks with better chart formation.
STX - I was right to close this PUT position. The stock was up, right till earnings announcement. Then it dropped. When I played STX, I played based on the charts, not knowing the earnings announcement is coming soon (should have checked earlier). Playing with earnings in mind create a new dimension to consider. I am right to play for the right reason.
- PersianCat04 (Milionaire-in-progress)
