My current portfolio:
AAPL Call - Very trying. But I'm still bullish prior to earnings. Still holding.
BZH Bear Call spread - Had closed my sold leg twice (each with >$100 profit per contract) since I played this spread. Looking forward to sell again. My bgt leg still remains.
PALM Put - Bgt the May $22.5 Put yesterday. Slightly positive, nothing to crow about.
STX Put - Bgt yesterday. Made a mistake on this stock. While the charts showed a "sell", I forgot to check its earnings announcement date. The stock is now likely to rise prior to earnings announcement on 18 Apr. I am holding on for the moment.
QQQQ Put - Sold my QQQQ Jun $45 Put for > 19% profit (4 days of patience).
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
PALM, STX - Possible new play
Possible New Play
PALM ($23.33) - nice setup - Bearish Play. Candlestick, RSI and stochastics indicators showed a sell signal. PALM had been on a bullish trend (and gaining market share) due to its Treo handset (compete with RIMM blackberry) and the problems faced by RIMM in its court case. Now that RIMM court case had been settled, RIMM is set to take back some of its market share from PALM. There are other new competitors coming to the market, MOT & NOK.
I think PALM is due for correction.
Target 1 = $21.97
Target 2 = $19.25
Stop Loss = above $24.91
STX ($26.45) - also Bearish
Target 1 = $23.29
Stop Loss = above $27.74
Have Profitable Trades everyday
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
PALM ($23.33) - nice setup - Bearish Play. Candlestick, RSI and stochastics indicators showed a sell signal. PALM had been on a bullish trend (and gaining market share) due to its Treo handset (compete with RIMM blackberry) and the problems faced by RIMM in its court case. Now that RIMM court case had been settled, RIMM is set to take back some of its market share from PALM. There are other new competitors coming to the market, MOT & NOK.
I think PALM is due for correction.
Target 1 = $21.97
Target 2 = $19.25
Stop Loss = above $24.91
STX ($26.45) - also Bearish
Target 1 = $23.29
Stop Loss = above $27.74
Have Profitable Trades everyday
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, April 10, 2006
Weekend Edition
The general market tanked on Friday.
I have closed my position in HOV. I did a credit spread Apr $45.00/$50.00. Though, my options are out-of-money, I am locking-in my profits and want to focus on other stocks. I sense that the market will be very active this 2 weeks.
My current position are:
- AAPL May 70 Call (sold it and buy it back at a lower price on Friday).
- XSNX (sold it and buy it back at a lower price on Friday)
- BZH Apr Bear Call Credit spreads. It is now -ve for me. (It was +ve before). I am still bearish on the overall housing market.
- QQQQ Jun $45 Put (Bought on Fri. Time value of only $0.10. This play was recommended by www.MrSwing.com. I looked at the charts, looks good. I am also bearish on the overall market. This is also a leap of faith play as I play b4 the confirmation candle. I am already slightly positive for this play). If you want to play this, plse wait for the confirmation candle.
Currently, I am bearish on the technology stocks (except AAPL). I am monitoring PALM, SNDK, STX for possible shorting play (either straight Put or Bear Call Credit spreads).
NEM and FCX charts also look good for shorting play. But for commodities, I like to play long for the moment. as such I would play them when the charts show they are reversing for a bull rally.
For breakouts play, I am now looking at JNPR and CEPH.
Having sharpened my technical analysis (TA) to a comfortable level (still have a lot to learn though) I am now working to trust my intuition. I think this will be a long process. While the TA provides me with the tools for the science of trading, I think the intuition will provide me with tools for the Art of Trading.
It is now 2 weeks before Expiration Friday. Have to remind myself not to play Apr options unless it is a credit spread.
Bye for now. Have Profitable Trades everyday.
- Persian Cat04.
Saturday, April 08, 2006
XSNX updates - Speculative Play
Thu, 6 Apr 2006 10:36:33
Hi Marcus,
I think the performance of the stock over the past 2hrs today speaks for itself. Hopefully, the stock price sustains its rally today. Looking at the bigger picture, it's support level is around $1.55/$1.60, which it hit yesterday and bounce a little. Today, it gave a convincing rally (so far). Frankly, I would be concerned if the stock goes belowand stays below $1.55. It does not have stock options for us to play repair strategy. We only have a plain Stop Loss.
--- mhoeller wrote:
Appreciate your sharing. What's your take on XSNX now, its selling off with volume. Just a correction? Best regards, Marcus Hoeller
Thu, 23 Mar 2006 09:29:18
Hi All!
The stock XSNX hit new high at $2.91 last Thursday. Since then, it experienced a brief pull back forming a doji candle on Tuesday. Yesterday, it gave a good white candle - setting the stage for another attempt to break new high (perhaps by Fri, tomm). Whether it happens or not, remains to be seen. But it is interesting to see that the stock started to behave in a particular pattern.
So far the pattern is: Each time it significantly breaks a new high, it briefly pulls back and then continue with its uptrend. I would consider this play as speculative and as such only a small $$$ of my portfolio should be used. The stock do hold promise but it needed sales (which we would know perhaps after its marketing campaign started). I would think this stock would continue its uptrend unless there are some bad news. (see ESLR or TASR in its first exponential growth year for similar story lines - show promise but the stock is still not profitable). If you play, make sure you have your stops. Have a profitable trade everyday.
Fri, 17 Mar 2006 04:41:38
At the moment, it is speculative until there are more promising info after their marketing starts.
------Kim wrote:
Hie all,
XSNX hit 2.78 yesterday. both vol and price are up. Hope some of you have bought into Rafee's comments. There is interest in this stock. Question is what strategy sh one adopt. Speculative or possible growth stock?? Any thoughts?? Kim
Tue, 14 Mar 2006 07:37:01
Hi All, The stock XSNX broke a new high yesterday. It seems that the stock is pretty bullish. Each time there is a pullback, it provide a good opportunity to long. I'm now in position again.
Thu, 9 Mar 2006 04:33:53
Hi Kim,
This stock is actually a speculative play with a seemingly strong fundamentals. As in all speculative play, we should play small only. But the returns could be very high. I use the charts to determine my entry and exit. I am now waiting forthe right signals to enter again. For the last few days, the stock behaved as expected. I think there are some institutional play oredi. Thx.
--- Kim wrote:
Thks, This stock is really volatile. I hope it has some strong fundamentals. Continue to share with us. Thks Kim.
Wed, 8 Mar 2006 10:18:52
Hi all!
The stock XSNX peaked at $2.115 on Monday. Yesterday, the price ended below Monday's low confirming a reversal (based on candlestick analysis). The stochastics (8,3,3) and RSI (4) also pointed to a reversal. If the stock drops below yesterday's low, coupled with today's bearish sentiment for the general market (and the energy market), tendency is that the stock would continue to drop. It's next support are $1.62, $1.40 and $1.06. Strong support at $0.87. I already taken my profit and waiting for the next reversal to long again.
Hi Marcus,
I think the performance of the stock over the past 2hrs today speaks for itself. Hopefully, the stock price sustains its rally today. Looking at the bigger picture, it's support level is around $1.55/$1.60, which it hit yesterday and bounce a little. Today, it gave a convincing rally (so far). Frankly, I would be concerned if the stock goes belowand stays below $1.55. It does not have stock options for us to play repair strategy. We only have a plain Stop Loss.
--- mhoeller wrote:
Appreciate your sharing. What's your take on XSNX now, its selling off with volume. Just a correction? Best regards, Marcus Hoeller
Thu, 23 Mar 2006 09:29:18
Hi All!
The stock XSNX hit new high at $2.91 last Thursday. Since then, it experienced a brief pull back forming a doji candle on Tuesday. Yesterday, it gave a good white candle - setting the stage for another attempt to break new high (perhaps by Fri, tomm). Whether it happens or not, remains to be seen. But it is interesting to see that the stock started to behave in a particular pattern.
So far the pattern is: Each time it significantly breaks a new high, it briefly pulls back and then continue with its uptrend. I would consider this play as speculative and as such only a small $$$ of my portfolio should be used. The stock do hold promise but it needed sales (which we would know perhaps after its marketing campaign started). I would think this stock would continue its uptrend unless there are some bad news. (see ESLR or TASR in its first exponential growth year for similar story lines - show promise but the stock is still not profitable). If you play, make sure you have your stops. Have a profitable trade everyday.
Fri, 17 Mar 2006 04:41:38
At the moment, it is speculative until there are more promising info after their marketing starts.
------Kim wrote:
Hie all,
XSNX hit 2.78 yesterday. both vol and price are up. Hope some of you have bought into Rafee's comments. There is interest in this stock. Question is what strategy sh one adopt. Speculative or possible growth stock?? Any thoughts?? Kim
Tue, 14 Mar 2006 07:37:01
Hi All, The stock XSNX broke a new high yesterday. It seems that the stock is pretty bullish. Each time there is a pullback, it provide a good opportunity to long. I'm now in position again.
Thu, 9 Mar 2006 04:33:53
Hi Kim,
This stock is actually a speculative play with a seemingly strong fundamentals. As in all speculative play, we should play small only. But the returns could be very high. I use the charts to determine my entry and exit. I am now waiting forthe right signals to enter again. For the last few days, the stock behaved as expected. I think there are some institutional play oredi. Thx.
--- Kim wrote:
Thks, This stock is really volatile. I hope it has some strong fundamentals. Continue to share with us. Thks Kim.
Wed, 8 Mar 2006 10:18:52
Hi all!
The stock XSNX peaked at $2.115 on Monday. Yesterday, the price ended below Monday's low confirming a reversal (based on candlestick analysis). The stochastics (8,3,3) and RSI (4) also pointed to a reversal. If the stock drops below yesterday's low, coupled with today's bearish sentiment for the general market (and the energy market), tendency is that the stock would continue to drop. It's next support are $1.62, $1.40 and $1.06. Strong support at $0.87. I already taken my profit and waiting for the next reversal to long again.
Credit Spreads
Thu, 6 Apr 2006 08:26:47
I've been bearish on the overall trend for GM, F and housing stocks. I only play them when they have reversed and turn south. I tried playing straight PUT for these stocks - get mix results - time decay eatsinto my options. So I now play credit spreads on these stocks. The indicators I use include the Stocs, RSI, Volume, MACD, Fibonacci, candlesticks charting. Thx.
-- Perry Tan wrote:
Congrats. For your recent spread plays, could u share as to how u identified these stocks to play? How did u screen & based on what indicators? Perry
I've been bearish on the overall trend for GM, F and housing stocks. I only play them when they have reversed and turn south. I tried playing straight PUT for these stocks - get mix results - time decay eatsinto my options. So I now play credit spreads on these stocks. The indicators I use include the Stocs, RSI, Volume, MACD, Fibonacci, candlesticks charting. Thx.
-- Perry Tan wrote:
Congrats. For your recent spread plays, could u share as to how u identified these stocks to play? How did u screen & based on what indicators? Perry
AAPL updates
Fri, 7 Apr 2006 04:34
AAPL had a good run yesterday (2 days in a row). It broke its resistance level of $68.04 and closed at$71.24. The next resistance is $73.00 (which is also my Target - may have to review my target upwards. Have to see what happens today.) followed by $76.60 and$86.40.
I've already sell-to-close my AAPL May 62.50 Call (made more than 100% - six days of patience). Yesterday, I buy-to-open AAPL May 70 Call. I did this because I want to release my funds that is locked in the May $62.50 Call (already > $9.00). e.g. I could buy 2 May 70 Call for the price of 1 May 62.50 Call.
As I mentioned b4, I am playing AAPL up to earnings announcement. For the earnings play, I am not sure what to play yet. Will decide nearer to the date.
Tue, 4 Apr 2006 16:28:04
Hi Thomas, Playing AAPL at the moment can be quite trying. While I do not know which way the stock is going, I am still holding on to my May $62.50 Call. The stock had been talked down by various parties today. GOOG is also introducing music download challenging AAPL iTunes. Despite that, AAPL just lost$1.48. Let see what happens tomm.
Looking at the bigger picture, I would be concern if the stock drops below and stay below $56.67 (its next support line). If that happens, I wld convert my Call to a spread selling Apr $57.50 Call. I reckon if I sell Apr $57.50 Call and consequently May $57.50 Call, I could recover most of the loss (if not a small profit) from my May $62.50 Call. Thanks.
--- Thomas Saw wrote:
AAPL look like its forming an "island". So what is your view? Many thanks for sharing . Thomas
Thu, 30 Mar 2006 6:04:51
I found another potential great play.AAPL - bullish.
The stock had been heading south since mid Jan 06 (it's 52 week high). From its high in mid Jan against yesterday's low, it lost more than 33%. After breaking its SMA200 line, it bounced back with a convincing run above the SMA200 and close $3.62 higher with strong volume at $62.33 - conveniently resting near the Fibonacci 61.8% level (which is also the candlestick resistance level). The stocs (8,3,3) and RSI(4) showed a bullish signal. The next resistance are $68.04, $73.00 Stop loss at $57.67 AAPL earnings results will be out on 19 Apr 06. I will play when the stock goes above $62.33. Thx.
AAPL had a good run yesterday (2 days in a row). It broke its resistance level of $68.04 and closed at$71.24. The next resistance is $73.00 (which is also my Target - may have to review my target upwards. Have to see what happens today.) followed by $76.60 and$86.40.
I've already sell-to-close my AAPL May 62.50 Call (made more than 100% - six days of patience). Yesterday, I buy-to-open AAPL May 70 Call. I did this because I want to release my funds that is locked in the May $62.50 Call (already > $9.00). e.g. I could buy 2 May 70 Call for the price of 1 May 62.50 Call.
As I mentioned b4, I am playing AAPL up to earnings announcement. For the earnings play, I am not sure what to play yet. Will decide nearer to the date.
Tue, 4 Apr 2006 16:28:04
Hi Thomas, Playing AAPL at the moment can be quite trying. While I do not know which way the stock is going, I am still holding on to my May $62.50 Call. The stock had been talked down by various parties today. GOOG is also introducing music download challenging AAPL iTunes. Despite that, AAPL just lost$1.48. Let see what happens tomm.
Looking at the bigger picture, I would be concern if the stock drops below and stay below $56.67 (its next support line). If that happens, I wld convert my Call to a spread selling Apr $57.50 Call. I reckon if I sell Apr $57.50 Call and consequently May $57.50 Call, I could recover most of the loss (if not a small profit) from my May $62.50 Call. Thanks.
--- Thomas Saw wrote:
AAPL look like its forming an "island". So what is your view? Many thanks for sharing . Thomas
Thu, 30 Mar 2006 6:04:51
I found another potential great play.AAPL - bullish.
The stock had been heading south since mid Jan 06 (it's 52 week high). From its high in mid Jan against yesterday's low, it lost more than 33%. After breaking its SMA200 line, it bounced back with a convincing run above the SMA200 and close $3.62 higher with strong volume at $62.33 - conveniently resting near the Fibonacci 61.8% level (which is also the candlestick resistance level). The stocs (8,3,3) and RSI(4) showed a bullish signal. The next resistance are $68.04, $73.00 Stop loss at $57.67 AAPL earnings results will be out on 19 Apr 06. I will play when the stock goes above $62.33. Thx.
