The Jewish Passover falls on April 9-11 and April 15-16. During these few days, no work is permitted. Expect the volume of all trading instruments to be low. More info on the Jewish holidays could be found thro the link:
http://persiancat04.blogspot.com/2009/02/jewish-holidays-in-2009.html
Tommorow is Good Friday holiday. U.S. stock market is closed.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Yesterday's Market Round-up
As expected (though for some it is "as feared"), the market dropped significantly yesterday.
- Dow Jones Index - drop 3.27%
- S&P500 Index - drop 3.48%
- Nasdaq Composite Index - 2.81%
Will the drop continues? Technically, it should be likely. For now, I am riding on the wave downwards. Wheeeeeeeeeee !!!!!!
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, March 30, 2009
Asian Markets is down - So Will The U.S. ?
The U.S. markets (so are the world markets) had been having a very good run since 6 March 2009. The expected continuation of downtrend failed to materialise after 20 Mar when the Obama Administration announced its plans to buy over toxic assets. Since then, the market is looking for an excuse to continue its downtrend.
Technically, the 3 major indices showed signs of overbought positions. Divergence can also be seen in the RSI and Stochastics.
Today, the Asian markets closed significantly lower on reports that "the Obama administration has forced the departure of General Motors Corp.'s chief executive and suggested a "quick and surgical" bankruptcy for struggling U.S. car makers".
This could be the excuse the market is looking for to continue with its downtrend. As to whether the market will test its March Lows is yet to be seen. At the moment, the immediate target is the March Lows.
At some point today, the DOW futures was negative 200 points. I still have my SPY credit spread which expires tommorrow. I would just need the SPY to drop below $78 upon expiry to fully keep the premium.
The Chinese solar companies unexpectedly jumped last Thursday when it was reported that the Chinese government would subsidise and jump start the solar industries.
I had been playing the covered call on STP (a Chinese Solar Energy play). Such strategy is good for bullish stocks (not very bullish stocks). When the market jumped on Thursday, I closed the April 7.5 Call at a loss. I sold back the April 10 Call after the stock climb much higher. Overall, I still make $$$ as the underlying stock (which I owned) makes much more $$$ than the loss through the April 7.5 Call.
I expect the Chinese Solar stocks to retrace and consolidate its next move. It is likely to move lower with the general market. I would be shorting a naked Put on STP when the time is right.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Technically, the 3 major indices showed signs of overbought positions. Divergence can also be seen in the RSI and Stochastics.
Today, the Asian markets closed significantly lower on reports that "the Obama administration has forced the departure of General Motors Corp.'s chief executive and suggested a "quick and surgical" bankruptcy for struggling U.S. car makers".
This could be the excuse the market is looking for to continue with its downtrend. As to whether the market will test its March Lows is yet to be seen. At the moment, the immediate target is the March Lows.
At some point today, the DOW futures was negative 200 points. I still have my SPY credit spread which expires tommorrow. I would just need the SPY to drop below $78 upon expiry to fully keep the premium.
The Chinese solar companies unexpectedly jumped last Thursday when it was reported that the Chinese government would subsidise and jump start the solar industries.
I had been playing the covered call on STP (a Chinese Solar Energy play). Such strategy is good for bullish stocks (not very bullish stocks). When the market jumped on Thursday, I closed the April 7.5 Call at a loss. I sold back the April 10 Call after the stock climb much higher. Overall, I still make $$$ as the underlying stock (which I owned) makes much more $$$ than the loss through the April 7.5 Call.
I expect the Chinese Solar stocks to retrace and consolidate its next move. It is likely to move lower with the general market. I would be shorting a naked Put on STP when the time is right.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, March 23, 2009
Selling Naked Put
Someone asked me, "Isn't selling naked options very risky?".
The fact is, buying options is also risky, so is buying/selling shares, playing commodities, futures and forex. The main question should be, "Is it worth the risk and how can I manage the risk?"
I do not encourage any novice traders to sell naked Calls Options. With naked Put Options, it is a different matter. Due to the recent market turmoil, fresh opportunities arise. I have subscribe to to idea of selling naked Put (even to novice traders) provided traders follow certain strict rules. Selling naked Puts is a strategy used by Warren Buffet to collect shares of the stocks that he want to accumulate. Note that he accumulates stocks (a very long term investor) rather than trade stocks.
Selling Naked Put
This is how it works. Lets assume the following:
If the above Put options expire worthless, he pocket all the $6 that he sold. Either way, he is happy with the transaction.
For novice traders, I have tweaked the above strategy further. I will be sharing the strategy to the next batch of my handholding sessions starting in May 2009. I will show them how to fish as well as giving some fish to start with. The strategy do not stop here. After collecting the shares, we must find ways to effectively maximise our returns. I would then share my trading style in playing the covered Calls. This set of strategies works best for those who want limited but decent profits with limited risk on a monthly basis. It does not require much monitoring - giving me time to invest more time on my Forex plays. When played well, each part of the strategies could generate more than 10% per month !
For March expiry options, I have played STP, selling $7.5 Put for $1.35 and selling $5 Put for $0.60 (played on different days). My $5 Put expired worthless (as such, I keep all the $0.60, a return of about 24% in less than a month, based on a margin of about $2.50).
My $7.5 Put expired in-the-money. As such, I was assigned with 100 shares for every option contract that I sold. However, my breakeven cost is $6.15 (the stock closed at $6.91 on Friday).
I would then play covered Calls on STP.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
P.S.
As I write this posting, my intuition says that I should share this set of strategies in detail, separately to non-novice traders. Hmm.... We shall see .....
The fact is, buying options is also risky, so is buying/selling shares, playing commodities, futures and forex. The main question should be, "Is it worth the risk and how can I manage the risk?"
I do not encourage any novice traders to sell naked Calls Options. With naked Put Options, it is a different matter. Due to the recent market turmoil, fresh opportunities arise. I have subscribe to to idea of selling naked Put (even to novice traders) provided traders follow certain strict rules. Selling naked Puts is a strategy used by Warren Buffet to collect shares of the stocks that he want to accumulate. Note that he accumulates stocks (a very long term investor) rather than trade stocks.
Selling Naked Put
This is how it works. Lets assume the following:
- Warren Buffet wants to accumulate more shares in BNI (he actually had bought BNI !).
- The shares is currently hovering around $55.
- He wants to buy more shares at $45 or below.
If the above Put options expire worthless, he pocket all the $6 that he sold. Either way, he is happy with the transaction.
For novice traders, I have tweaked the above strategy further. I will be sharing the strategy to the next batch of my handholding sessions starting in May 2009. I will show them how to fish as well as giving some fish to start with. The strategy do not stop here. After collecting the shares, we must find ways to effectively maximise our returns. I would then share my trading style in playing the covered Calls. This set of strategies works best for those who want limited but decent profits with limited risk on a monthly basis. It does not require much monitoring - giving me time to invest more time on my Forex plays. When played well, each part of the strategies could generate more than 10% per month !
For March expiry options, I have played STP, selling $7.5 Put for $1.35 and selling $5 Put for $0.60 (played on different days). My $5 Put expired worthless (as such, I keep all the $0.60, a return of about 24% in less than a month, based on a margin of about $2.50).
My $7.5 Put expired in-the-money. As such, I was assigned with 100 shares for every option contract that I sold. However, my breakeven cost is $6.15 (the stock closed at $6.91 on Friday).
I would then play covered Calls on STP.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
P.S.
As I write this posting, my intuition says that I should share this set of strategies in detail, separately to non-novice traders. Hmm.... We shall see .....
Friday, March 20, 2009
Triple Witching Day
Today is a Triple Witching Day - "the third Friday of the month that ends each quarter. It marks the simultaneous expiration, at the close, of stock options, index options and index futures." Typically, there is an increase in volatility of the stock market on such a day.
But what is more interesting is that the Triple Witching Day coincided with an overbought market.
I have already closed my SPY Bull Put spreads. My naked sold Mar 7.5 and 5.0 Puts for STP are still in play and are performing well so far. I have added GS Puts recently.
Depending on how the market behaves tonight, I might leave a set of fresh Bear Call Spreads expiring 31 March overnight.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
But what is more interesting is that the Triple Witching Day coincided with an overbought market.
- The DOW Index is now at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and hovering at the Nov 2008 Low level (now become a resistance).
- The S&P500 Index is now at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and hovering at the Jan 2009 Low level (now become a resistance).
- The Nasdaq Composite Index is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
I have already closed my SPY Bull Put spreads. My naked sold Mar 7.5 and 5.0 Puts for STP are still in play and are performing well so far. I have added GS Puts recently.
Depending on how the market behaves tonight, I might leave a set of fresh Bear Call Spreads expiring 31 March overnight.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, March 16, 2009
Are You An Academician Or Practitioner?
I was watching the re-run of the "Matrix Reloaded" last night. There was scene where the Councillor was talking with Neo about the many things he probably do not know and understand. While he know what some of the machines do (the good things) for them, he do not understand and will never comprehend how it works. Nevertheless, he did not stop the machines from doing what they are supposed to do (e.g. purifying water).
This reminded me of some of my observations in attending courses and in handholding groups of novice traders. In trading, some of the concepts and indicators can be pretty complex to understand. However, what is important is to know how to apply it. Some novice traders are too bogged down trying to understand a concept before they want to apply what they had learned. e.g. some try to understand "Black-Scholes" formula - at the expense of losing the opportunity to make money.
As a car driver, I do not know how the engine of a car really works. But all I need to know to drive a car safely is to know how to use the ABCs (Accelerator, Brake and Clutch) at the right moment. As a trading practitioner, I do not need to remember and know exactly the Black Scholes formula. What is important is to know how to make money from the application of the formula.
As a trading academician, you need to know the formula well, etc. You may even see a compelling need to develop a new indicator or a formula (after years of trading in the market).
So as a novice trader, do you want to be a Trading Practitioner or jump to be a Trading Academician?
I choose to be a Trading Practitioner first (making my money). Whether I want to be a Trading Academician later in life is yet to be seen (not likely for me though). My coaching and handholding sessions are more geared at the practical aspects rather than the academic aspects.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
This reminded me of some of my observations in attending courses and in handholding groups of novice traders. In trading, some of the concepts and indicators can be pretty complex to understand. However, what is important is to know how to apply it. Some novice traders are too bogged down trying to understand a concept before they want to apply what they had learned. e.g. some try to understand "Black-Scholes" formula - at the expense of losing the opportunity to make money.
As a car driver, I do not know how the engine of a car really works. But all I need to know to drive a car safely is to know how to use the ABCs (Accelerator, Brake and Clutch) at the right moment. As a trading practitioner, I do not need to remember and know exactly the Black Scholes formula. What is important is to know how to make money from the application of the formula.
As a trading academician, you need to know the formula well, etc. You may even see a compelling need to develop a new indicator or a formula (after years of trading in the market).
So as a novice trader, do you want to be a Trading Practitioner or jump to be a Trading Academician?
I choose to be a Trading Practitioner first (making my money). Whether I want to be a Trading Academician later in life is yet to be seen (not likely for me though). My coaching and handholding sessions are more geared at the practical aspects rather than the academic aspects.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Will The Bear Rally Continue?
The market had a good run closing positive in four consecutive days. What is more significant is that the market closed positive (though not a big positive) last Friday. It means that the market players (not sure the bug ones though - perhaps its the small ones, who would get injured again) are positive about the general market this week, as they left their position opened over the weekend. The comments made by Citigroup's CEO about C on its good results for Jan and Feb this year provided the stimulus for the rest of the market to move foreward. It would be interesting to watch how C and other financial giants (now dwarfted - C market capitalisation is less than DBS Singapore ! ) perform over the next few weeks and months.
Would the market continue with its bear market rally? It seems so though it is likely to take a breather (a slight dip or ends sideways) on Monday and perhaps on Tuesday - unless new bad news are released again.
All my Bull Put credit spreads on my SPY are positive again. My short Puts on STP are also positive. I have added Bull Put credit spreads on SPY based on the quarterly expiry dates.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Would the market continue with its bear market rally? It seems so though it is likely to take a breather (a slight dip or ends sideways) on Monday and perhaps on Tuesday - unless new bad news are released again.
All my Bull Put credit spreads on my SPY are positive again. My short Puts on STP are also positive. I have added Bull Put credit spreads on SPY based on the quarterly expiry dates.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
The Bounce Worth Waiting For !
All the three major indices did very well yesterday. It is the bounce I have waiting for. The credit spreads (Bull Put Spreads) that I have been playing on the SPY since the last few days were in the red before yesterday's move. Currently, most of them are back in the black.
Even my sold naked Puts on STP are now either in the black or pass the breakeven point.
With the current price action, I expect the market to go up today and perhaps tommorrow.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Even my sold naked Puts on STP are now either in the black or pass the breakeven point.
With the current price action, I expect the market to go up today and perhaps tommorrow.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, February 23, 2009
Jewish Holidays in 2009
Just a reminder. During the "no work permitted" Jewish holidays, the market for equities, forex and others will significantly drop in volume. Significant drop in volume could dramatically skewed price movement.
The Jewish holidays for 2009 could be found in:
http://www.chabad.org/calendar/holidays_cdo/aid/614415/jewish/2009-Holidays.htm
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
The Jewish holidays for 2009 could be found in:
http://www.chabad.org/calendar/holidays_cdo/aid/614415/jewish/2009-Holidays.htm
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Dow Broke below Nov 08 low
The Dow had broken its Nov 08 Low and is poised to test the Oct 2002 Low at 7197. In the meantime, S&P 500 is still testing the Nov 08 Low.
At the moment, the major indices are showing signs of being grossly oversold. Based on the intraday price action, I am not comfortable in leaving any swing bearish plays. My Bear Call Spreads on SPY and QQQQ as well as my Puts on SPY had done very well. My positions are all closed for now (by Friday last week). I was locking-in my profits. I am waiting for the market to retrace some what before I short again. In the meantime, I will possibly play intraday trades if the setup is right.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
At the moment, the major indices are showing signs of being grossly oversold. Based on the intraday price action, I am not comfortable in leaving any swing bearish plays. My Bear Call Spreads on SPY and QQQQ as well as my Puts on SPY had done very well. My positions are all closed for now (by Friday last week). I was locking-in my profits. I am waiting for the market to retrace some what before I short again. In the meantime, I will possibly play intraday trades if the setup is right.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Winds of Change
Obama stimulus plan had been approved. Yet the market's response was pretty muted. I supposed the winds have changed again. It's time for shorting. Have placed some Puts and Bear Call spreads.
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Next Market Stimulus - Obama Stimulus Package?
The market had climb up nicely since my last posting. Notably, it climb up significantly higher yesterday despite the worst unemployment figure since the last 17 years ago. My long positions are doing well thus far. I still have Calls on SPY and QQQQ as well as Bull Put credit spreads. The targets mentioned at the last postings remains valid.
The market is actually anticipating the approval of the US$800 billion stimulus package by the U.S. senate - long overdue. How exactly the market reacts after the approval remains to be seen. At the moment, the momentum is still there and we could expect the market to continue its climb. Like I said before, I am expecting a short rally perhaps up to end next week, if not earlier.
I was always asked, what stock should I play now. Typically in a short rally like this, it should logically be stocks with good fundamentals that can withstand the current economic crisis. However, this short rally also gives the opportunity for the weak stocks to pick itself up before continuing with its downtrend. If for whatever reason we could not find a stock to play, then just focus on SPY and/or QQQQ as I do now.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
The market is actually anticipating the approval of the US$800 billion stimulus package by the U.S. senate - long overdue. How exactly the market reacts after the approval remains to be seen. At the moment, the momentum is still there and we could expect the market to continue its climb. Like I said before, I am expecting a short rally perhaps up to end next week, if not earlier.
I was always asked, what stock should I play now. Typically in a short rally like this, it should logically be stocks with good fundamentals that can withstand the current economic crisis. However, this short rally also gives the opportunity for the weak stocks to pick itself up before continuing with its downtrend. If for whatever reason we could not find a stock to play, then just focus on SPY and/or QQQQ as I do now.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
The Mini Rally has started
It seems that the mini rally that I am expecting is starting. The market rally somewhat with better than expected pending home sales (frankly, I personally feel that the home sales figures are no big deal). The market just need an excuse to rally. Even those with worse than expected earnings rally too. The rally is expected to last a few days.
This mini rally moves in tandem with the upward movement in the Euros and the Pound (for those trading Forex).
The main target for this rally:
This mini rally moves in tandem with the upward movement in the Euros and the Pound (for those trading Forex).
The main target for this rally:
- Dow = 9090
- S$P500 = 944
- Nasdaq Composite = 1666
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Post-Steve Jobs
Well, I overestimated the market reaction towards Steve Jobs ill health. I expected more negative reaction but the market was more sympathetic. I also overestimated the market reaction towards Obama Inauguration. I had expected a rally towards the end of the day.
That said, I still make some money from AAPL since the stock had been going south the last few days. Furthermore, towards the expiry day last Friday, three of the four credits spreads (AAPL, SPY, RTH) that I played made money. The last one was TGT - loss some here.
Last Friday, I played two fresh trades. Bought SPY Put and played credit spreads on SPY (apart from an existing AAPL Put). The plays were made based on the off-chance that the market would not be kind to Obama. It IS NOT kind to him ending significantly negative yesterday.
The market is oversold at the moment. It might want to test the Nov 2008 low. However, it may not have enough energy to test the Low soon. I have liquidated all my short positions for now - waiting to short again at the right moment.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
That said, I still make some money from AAPL since the stock had been going south the last few days. Furthermore, towards the expiry day last Friday, three of the four credits spreads (AAPL, SPY, RTH) that I played made money. The last one was TGT - loss some here.
Last Friday, I played two fresh trades. Bought SPY Put and played credit spreads on SPY (apart from an existing AAPL Put). The plays were made based on the off-chance that the market would not be kind to Obama. It IS NOT kind to him ending significantly negative yesterday.
The market is oversold at the moment. It might want to test the Nov 2008 low. However, it may not have enough energy to test the Low soon. I have liquidated all my short positions for now - waiting to short again at the right moment.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Steve Jobs and Obama Rally ?
Breaking News !!!
CNBC reported after market close that Apple CEO Steve Jobs is taking medical leave till Jun 2009. The stock is expected to take a beating tommorrow.
In my 23 Dec 2008 posting, I mentioned about Steve Jobs's health. I still have AAPL April 80 Put as well as a Bear Call Spread (Jan 90/95 Call). My April Put is slightly negative while my credit spread is doing well. By tommorrow, my April Put should be doing well while my buy limit order of $0.05 on my credit spread is likely to be filled. One analyst already mentioned that AAPL is likely to be in the $75 region tommorrow. I think it could be more than that. A knee jerk reaction could force the stock to be down by more than $20 in the pre-market before settling higher. We shall see what happens next.
Obama Inauguration Rally
Prior to the breaking news on Steve Jobs, I am expecting a Obama Inauguration rally on Thursday and Friday. It is partly due to a feel good factor prior to a great event on 20 January. However, the market might be greatly affected by AAPL performance tommorrow. A rally is less likely on Thursday.
Martin Luther King Holiday
This holiday falls on 19 January. Last year, the day after Martin Luther King holiday, the DOW drops more than 600 points in pre-market. This year, the day after the holiday happens to be the day Obama will be inaugurated. While I hope things goes well for Obama, there is a small probability that the Inauguration will be marred with nasty incidents. I am contemplating of buying Puts on SPY or playing Bear Call Spreads (Feb expiry) on SPY by the end of Friday in case the market reacted negatively on 20th January. Whatever happens, I will close these positions on Tuesday if I played them.
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
CNBC reported after market close that Apple CEO Steve Jobs is taking medical leave till Jun 2009. The stock is expected to take a beating tommorrow.
In my 23 Dec 2008 posting, I mentioned about Steve Jobs's health. I still have AAPL April 80 Put as well as a Bear Call Spread (Jan 90/95 Call). My April Put is slightly negative while my credit spread is doing well. By tommorrow, my April Put should be doing well while my buy limit order of $0.05 on my credit spread is likely to be filled. One analyst already mentioned that AAPL is likely to be in the $75 region tommorrow. I think it could be more than that. A knee jerk reaction could force the stock to be down by more than $20 in the pre-market before settling higher. We shall see what happens next.
Obama Inauguration Rally
Prior to the breaking news on Steve Jobs, I am expecting a Obama Inauguration rally on Thursday and Friday. It is partly due to a feel good factor prior to a great event on 20 January. However, the market might be greatly affected by AAPL performance tommorrow. A rally is less likely on Thursday.
Martin Luther King Holiday
This holiday falls on 19 January. Last year, the day after Martin Luther King holiday, the DOW drops more than 600 points in pre-market. This year, the day after the holiday happens to be the day Obama will be inaugurated. While I hope things goes well for Obama, there is a small probability that the Inauguration will be marred with nasty incidents. I am contemplating of buying Puts on SPY or playing Bear Call Spreads (Feb expiry) on SPY by the end of Friday in case the market reacted negatively on 20th January. Whatever happens, I will close these positions on Tuesday if I played them.
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, January 05, 2009
Start of the New Year
Today is the first day of the year where the majority of traders will be back from holidays. Though the market was trying to put a brave front by being bullish over the last few trading days, the trading movements were based on low volume. What matters now is whether the market ends bullish today. If it does, then it is likely that the market will continue its retracement perhaps until Obama's inauguration. If it does not, then the fight between the Bulls and the Bears continues.
Stay tune !
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Stay tune !
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, December 29, 2008
2009 U.S. Trading Holidays
January 1 - New Year's Day
January 19 - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
February 16 - Washington's Birthday/Presidents' Day (3rd Fri of Feb)
April 10 - Good Friday
May 25 - Memorial Day
July 3 - Independence Day (observed)
September 7 - Labor Day
November 26 - Thanksgiving Day
November 27* - Half Day due to Thanksgiving Day on Nov 26
December 24 - Half Day on Christmas eve
December 25 - Christmas
- extracted from www.nyse.com
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
January 19 - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
February 16 - Washington's Birthday/Presidents' Day (3rd Fri of Feb)
April 10 - Good Friday
May 25 - Memorial Day
July 3 - Independence Day (observed)
September 7 - Labor Day
November 26 - Thanksgiving Day
November 27* - Half Day due to Thanksgiving Day on Nov 26
December 24 - Half Day on Christmas eve
December 25 - Christmas
- extracted from www.nyse.com
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Will There Be A Christmas Rally?
The market had been consolidating for the last few weeks. Initially, the market ignored bad economics data (e.g. worse ever Non-Farm payroll (NFP)- negative 533k jobs lost). Lately, the bulls had been losing steam.
We could expect this week and the next to be low-volume weeks. It is partly because of the Christmas extended holidays as well as a Jewsih holiday. As such, any movement in the market would be skewed. (Anyway, we have a 3.5 days of trading this week) Typically, we could expect a bullish run before Christmas and an extended bullish run immediately after Christmas - giving us the Christmas Rally. This is partly due to a "feel good factor" by traders not wanting to dampen the holiday mood.
I am now looking for signs for a Christmas Rally. It did not seem to have. If any, it would have been an early Christmas Rally when the market rallied when the bad NFP data was released weeks ago.
President-Elect Obama is now on 2 weeks holiday. Unless the situation warrant it, I do not expect him to make a news conference. His appearance on TV has created a claming effect on the market. With him out of the picture, the market would have to fend for themselves. More bad news can be expected. Despite the Black Friday sales, it was reported that the retailers still have large inventories to clear by Christmas.
I have placed a January 2009 Bear Call Spread on RTH (retail holders) and a few others, taking advantage of the longer holidays during Christmas and the New Year.
Take note too - AAPL. It had been reported that Steve Jobs would not address the MacWorld in January 2009. MacWorld is an important event for AAPL and APPLE die-hards. As much as AAPL tried to downplay Jobs absence, I think the decision is more because of his health than anything else. It is likely that he himself is uncertain about his health in January (though he may look healthy now despite his loss of weight). AAPL would be obliged to inform SEC if Jobs' health is confirmed significantly detiorating. However, if his health is not "consistently healthy", I believe AAPL would side on the part of caution - Not informing the SEC and not participating in MacWorld (and come out with a "Good" excuse). Any confirmation of Jobs negative health status would tanked the stock to historic low. I also expect AAPL to have less than expected sales/revenue this quarter. I have placed an April 2009 PUT on AAPL.
PerianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
We could expect this week and the next to be low-volume weeks. It is partly because of the Christmas extended holidays as well as a Jewsih holiday. As such, any movement in the market would be skewed. (Anyway, we have a 3.5 days of trading this week) Typically, we could expect a bullish run before Christmas and an extended bullish run immediately after Christmas - giving us the Christmas Rally. This is partly due to a "feel good factor" by traders not wanting to dampen the holiday mood.
I am now looking for signs for a Christmas Rally. It did not seem to have. If any, it would have been an early Christmas Rally when the market rallied when the bad NFP data was released weeks ago.
President-Elect Obama is now on 2 weeks holiday. Unless the situation warrant it, I do not expect him to make a news conference. His appearance on TV has created a claming effect on the market. With him out of the picture, the market would have to fend for themselves. More bad news can be expected. Despite the Black Friday sales, it was reported that the retailers still have large inventories to clear by Christmas.
I have placed a January 2009 Bear Call Spread on RTH (retail holders) and a few others, taking advantage of the longer holidays during Christmas and the New Year.
Take note too - AAPL. It had been reported that Steve Jobs would not address the MacWorld in January 2009. MacWorld is an important event for AAPL and APPLE die-hards. As much as AAPL tried to downplay Jobs absence, I think the decision is more because of his health than anything else. It is likely that he himself is uncertain about his health in January (though he may look healthy now despite his loss of weight). AAPL would be obliged to inform SEC if Jobs' health is confirmed significantly detiorating. However, if his health is not "consistently healthy", I believe AAPL would side on the part of caution - Not informing the SEC and not participating in MacWorld (and come out with a "Good" excuse). Any confirmation of Jobs negative health status would tanked the stock to historic low. I also expect AAPL to have less than expected sales/revenue this quarter. I have placed an April 2009 PUT on AAPL.
PerianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, December 08, 2008
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Black Friday Sales Data - Aftermath
Well, well, the market did reverse - and what a reversal !
The major indices drops significantly:
The next target for my short positions is last month's (Nov) Low.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
The major indices drops significantly:
- Dow = -680 points
- S&P 500 = -80 points
- Nasdaq Composite = -137 points
The next target for my short positions is last month's (Nov) Low.
Cheers !
PersianCat (Millionaire-in-progress)
