Monday, April 25, 2011

Phone OS sales forecast - Gartner, Apr 11



Based on the forecast above, Android phones will dominant at 38.5% market share by 2011 and 49.2% by 2012. The market share for iPhones will be slightly increased from 15.7% in 2010 to 19.4%. Its' market share will then dropped slightly to 18.9%. One can assume that the growth in apps downloads from iTunes will also be curtailed. This will greatly impact on the revenue that AAPL made on iPhones.

Cheers !
PersianCat

Sunday, April 24, 2011

C - How will it perform after the Reverse Stock Split

Fellow traders had been asking me about my thoughts on C after the 10-1 reverse stock split on 6th May 2011.

The facts:
  • The reverse split will effectively reduce the pool of outstanding shares from 29.1 B to 2.91 B. 
  • The stock should trade in the $45.50 neighborhood, rather than the current $4.55 level.

The Good:
  • Most large funds can only buy stocks above a certain price level, certainly not below $5. As such, large funds are expected to buy C in the future. 

The Bad:
  • The volume for C from small traders are expected to drop (though may be somewhat compensated by the volume from large funds).
  • Based on the experience faced by AIG (it conducted a 20-1 reverse stock split on 1 July 2009), we can expect C price level to drop over the next few days after the split. The stock would then recover with the general market. While the general market dropped for a few days after 1 July 2009 (SPY drop range was just 6.7% off the previous High), AIG dropped by a far more significant percentage


The future:
  • I am still bullish about C in the long run. However, I would only pick-up the stocks after the reverse stock split as I expect the stock to drop significantly before it mirror the general market somewhat. I have sold those C shares that I had. 
  • Currently, C is at an interesting 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. 
  • A good level to pick up the stocks is near the $36.30 price level (after the reverse split) or even lower. 



Cheers!

PersianCat (Meow !!!!!)

Sunday, April 03, 2011

iPad2 (as at 3 Apr 2011)


The Street estimates
  • iPad sales account for roughy 7% of Apple's stock value, if pegged at $420 (about 17% ahead of market price)
  • If the iPad 2 can help Apple keep competitors' tablets at bay, our forecasts for iPad unit sales could prove conservative, implying upside to our $420 price estimate for Apple
  • Apple sold around 15 million iPads in 2010, and we estimate that it could sell another 24 million in 2011. We project that this total will continue its steady climb towards 54 million by the end of our forecast period. 
  • According to IDC, the tablet market is expected to grow from around 45 million units in 2011 to 71 million in 2012, and Apple's market share could reach 60% in 2011. This implies an expected 27 million iPads sold in 2011.
  • Although our 24 million unit estimate seems a little conservative by comparison, we believe that Google's(GOOG_) new Android operating system for tablets (Honeycomb) could pose a meaningful challenge.
PersianCat (Meowwww!!!!)