Today, the existing home sales data was released. For the first time in years, the median price for the existing home sales decreased (about 1.7%). CNBC also mentioned that the inventory is at the highest since 1993.
The drop in the median sales price is what I have been waiting for. Continuing drop in median sales price would put pressure on the home builders stocks to break its recent support.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Monday, September 25, 2006
Sunday, September 24, 2006
Market Update
The DOW is now about 170 points away from its May high and 250 points away from its all-time high. On a very good day, to achieve 250 points is not a problem for DOW. The S&P 500 index had already broke its May high.
However, the market had shown a lot of lethargy, trying to break new high. It is in overbought situation. It had 2 down days for the past 2 trading days. While the market will probably make another attempt to break an all time high for the DOW, it is time to consider that the market might be in for a pull-back. There are many stocks as candidates to short, especially the Tech stocks (many with confirmation candles). The stop-loss should be the recent high.
However, the market had shown a lot of lethargy, trying to break new high. It is in overbought situation. It had 2 down days for the past 2 trading days. While the market will probably make another attempt to break an all time high for the DOW, it is time to consider that the market might be in for a pull-back. There are many stocks as candidates to short, especially the Tech stocks (many with confirmation candles). The stop-loss should be the recent high.
A few things to consider however:
- Jim Cramer had been calling to dump energy stocks and push for Tech stocks (at least till the end of the month) as he believe that the institutional investors will window dress this quarter with Tech stocks.
- He also mentioned that crude oil will drop to $56 before it go up again.
- Many analysts are still expecting a Christmas rally. Such expectations tend to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
- September tends to end lower.
While I tend to give what Jim Cramer says with a pinch of salt, what he says tends to move the market in the short-term. As a swing trader, I play on a short-term basis. As such, I have to take notice of what he says eventhough I may disagree with him.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
DOW and S&P500
DOW ($INDU) S&P500Based on the daily charts, the DOW is just about 130 points away from its 52-week high. Whereas the S&P500 is just 10 points away from its 52-week high. One could expect the market to attempt to break the 52-week resistance line. Barring unforeseen circumstances (e.g. war with Iran), I feel that the market would break new high and remain high for most part of the next quarter.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Home Builders
$HGX - the housing index made a strong rally today. Lately, the home builders stocks have been resisting the downtrend eventhough the homebuilders industry had been bashed with continuing bad news (e.g. increasing inventory & increasing lower sales). At current market value, most homebuilder stocks are valued at a very low PE ratio (single digits).
However, what is interesting is that the median price of each houses sold had not dropped. Until and unless the price of houses sold drop, the continuing slide of the home builder stocks could not be justified further. As such, I believe the home builder stocks would get a reprieve it badly needed (as shown in today's rally).
I'm however, feel that the prices of houses sold would start to drop next year if not sooner. Depending on the severity of the drop in prices, it could impact consumer spending (which would impact the market in general)
I've been playing Bear Call Spread on BZH and RYL recently (typically in-the-money). I closed my sold leg yesterday with profits. But what make it more interesting is that my bought legs, which were negative before is now positive. I might close these positions tommorrow.
I would wait for a reversal signal before playing Bear Call credit spreads on the home builders again.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
RIG - Huge Oil find in Gulf of Mexico
Heard from CNBC about the huge oil find in the Gulf of Mexico. Also read from American Capitalist:
Black Gold Gushes in the Gulf
Just announced this morning, Chevron Corp. (CVX:NYSE) has successfully completed what it called “a record setting production test” on a well located about 270 miles southwest of New Orleans in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron said the well sustained a flow rate of 6,000 barrels of crude a day. Unfortunately, the equipment used is not able to maintain more than 6,000 barrels, but we’ll take what we can get.
Chevron owns 50% of the well, with companies like Devon Energy (DVN:NYSE) and Statoil (STO:NYSE) holding the remaining 50% equity interest. All three companies are estimating the new oil field to hold between 3 billion and as much as 15 billion barrels worth of oil and gas reserves. If 15 billion barrels are found, oil reserves would be boosted by 50% in the United States.
The find should benefit Oil Services stocks. One player I like a lot is RIG. It had quietly gained more than $4 on Friday and further gained $2.70 so far today. We have 2 more months before the hurricane season is over. Any freak hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (where many of U.S. oil rigs are located, apart from Alaska) would again benefit RIG.
Target = 80.10, 84.05 & 90.16 (52-week high)
Stop loss = 65.52
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Black Gold Gushes in the Gulf
Just announced this morning, Chevron Corp. (CVX:NYSE) has successfully completed what it called “a record setting production test” on a well located about 270 miles southwest of New Orleans in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron said the well sustained a flow rate of 6,000 barrels of crude a day. Unfortunately, the equipment used is not able to maintain more than 6,000 barrels, but we’ll take what we can get.
Chevron owns 50% of the well, with companies like Devon Energy (DVN:NYSE) and Statoil (STO:NYSE) holding the remaining 50% equity interest. All three companies are estimating the new oil field to hold between 3 billion and as much as 15 billion barrels worth of oil and gas reserves. If 15 billion barrels are found, oil reserves would be boosted by 50% in the United States.
The find should benefit Oil Services stocks. One player I like a lot is RIG. It had quietly gained more than $4 on Friday and further gained $2.70 so far today. We have 2 more months before the hurricane season is over. Any freak hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (where many of U.S. oil rigs are located, apart from Alaska) would again benefit RIG.
Target = 80.10, 84.05 & 90.16 (52-week high)
Stop loss = 65.52
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
AAPL - Special Media Event
Read from Briefing.com about the impending AAPL Special Media event next week on 12 Sep 06 to introduce new products and services. I would expect the market to react positively to the new slate of AAPL's products and services (It had gained $1.65 so far today).
Chart-wise, AAPL broke its resistance today. Target 73.38, 76.60 and86.40 (52.-week high). Stop-loss at 65.12. Note that AAPL is now above its SMA 200 again.
05-Sep-06 12:13 ET
Apple Computer confirms media event - AppleInsider (69.77 +1.39) -Update : AppleInsider reports in a digital invitation sent out to US-based media this morning, Apple confirmed that it will hold a special media event on September 12 to introduce new products and services. "It's Showtime," reads the invite, which displays a white Apple logo floating amongst four crisscrossing Hollywood movie spotlight rays. The event is scheduled for 10:00 am local time at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts Theater in San Francisco, Calif. (See 8:30 comment)
05-Sep-06 08:55 ET
Apple Computer: Cell phone is a reality; new product cycles including Macs, iPods, and cell phone drive ests higher; increasing tgt to $91 - AmTech (68.38 ) -Update : AmTech says Skeptics abounded when AAPL first launched their iPod MP3 players and revolutionized an emerging market and created a new business segment and a major rev driver for the co. Firm believes the new AAPL handset will be a major player and competitor set to disrupt another industry. Firm has learned that the kinks have been worked out of the new handset, and it is set for production. Firm is confident that AAPL will time their launch opportunistically, and that the new handsets are positioned to gain significant traction. This new market could easily represent an incremental $2 bln annual rev run-rate rev opportunity in Y07. Firm says 10 mln units does not seem a lofty target to them. This is not even contemplating sales of potential services and accessories which would be incremental. With Steve Jobs' history of revolutionizing the PC industry, the music industry, and the movie industry, firm encourages investors to get aggressive in purchasing shares of AAPL prior to the potential revolution of the handset industry. Firm ests for FY07 are now $22.2bln and $2.60 EPS up from $22 bln and $2.45. Firm adds AAPL to their Focus List, and their new tgt $91.
05-Sep-06 08:30 ET
Apple Computer to roll-out iTunes movies and 'one more thing' - AppleInsider (68.38 ) : AppleInsider reports Steve Jobs plans to summons the worldwide media to a special event this month in which he'll usher in a new chapter in the co's digital media strategy. Although the semi-official word out of Apple Americas is that invitations to the event have "not been sent" out, a seemingly inadvertent leak out of Apple Europe last week pinned the affair for Tuesday, September 12. Jobs will have much to talk about during the event, sources familiar with the chief exec's plans have said, including new iMacs and a much-anticipated update to the iPod nano. But the real push, they say, will be tied to the big screen. After what has seemed like nearly two years of rampart speculation and unbridled enthusiasm on the part of its fans, Apple is ready to introduce its al la carte feature film download service as part of iTunes. For some time now, published reports have insinuated that Apple and Jobs would be unwilling to launch a movie download service without a wide, touch-screen video iPod player to coincide. Jobs many months ago commissioned an elite group of Apple engineers to get the ball rolling on an intuitive hardware solution that would more closely tie the co's digital media strategy to the living-room. And so AppleInsider has been told, Apple has been quietly developing a video streaming device that will interface with an updated version of its iTunes jukebox software.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
Chart-wise, AAPL broke its resistance today. Target 73.38, 76.60 and86.40 (52.-week high). Stop-loss at 65.12. Note that AAPL is now above its SMA 200 again.
05-Sep-06 12:13 ET
Apple Computer confirms media event - AppleInsider (69.77 +1.39) -Update : AppleInsider reports in a digital invitation sent out to US-based media this morning, Apple confirmed that it will hold a special media event on September 12 to introduce new products and services. "It's Showtime," reads the invite, which displays a white Apple logo floating amongst four crisscrossing Hollywood movie spotlight rays. The event is scheduled for 10:00 am local time at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts Theater in San Francisco, Calif. (See 8:30 comment)
05-Sep-06 08:55 ET
Apple Computer: Cell phone is a reality; new product cycles including Macs, iPods, and cell phone drive ests higher; increasing tgt to $91 - AmTech (68.38 ) -Update : AmTech says Skeptics abounded when AAPL first launched their iPod MP3 players and revolutionized an emerging market and created a new business segment and a major rev driver for the co. Firm believes the new AAPL handset will be a major player and competitor set to disrupt another industry. Firm has learned that the kinks have been worked out of the new handset, and it is set for production. Firm is confident that AAPL will time their launch opportunistically, and that the new handsets are positioned to gain significant traction. This new market could easily represent an incremental $2 bln annual rev run-rate rev opportunity in Y07. Firm says 10 mln units does not seem a lofty target to them. This is not even contemplating sales of potential services and accessories which would be incremental. With Steve Jobs' history of revolutionizing the PC industry, the music industry, and the movie industry, firm encourages investors to get aggressive in purchasing shares of AAPL prior to the potential revolution of the handset industry. Firm ests for FY07 are now $22.2bln and $2.60 EPS up from $22 bln and $2.45. Firm adds AAPL to their Focus List, and their new tgt $91.
05-Sep-06 08:30 ET
Apple Computer to roll-out iTunes movies and 'one more thing' - AppleInsider (68.38 ) : AppleInsider reports Steve Jobs plans to summons the worldwide media to a special event this month in which he'll usher in a new chapter in the co's digital media strategy. Although the semi-official word out of Apple Americas is that invitations to the event have "not been sent" out, a seemingly inadvertent leak out of Apple Europe last week pinned the affair for Tuesday, September 12. Jobs will have much to talk about during the event, sources familiar with the chief exec's plans have said, including new iMacs and a much-anticipated update to the iPod nano. But the real push, they say, will be tied to the big screen. After what has seemed like nearly two years of rampart speculation and unbridled enthusiasm on the part of its fans, Apple is ready to introduce its al la carte feature film download service as part of iTunes. For some time now, published reports have insinuated that Apple and Jobs would be unwilling to launch a movie download service without a wide, touch-screen video iPod player to coincide. Jobs many months ago commissioned an elite group of Apple engineers to get the ball rolling on an intuitive hardware solution that would more closely tie the co's digital media strategy to the living-room. And so AppleInsider has been told, Apple has been quietly developing a video streaming device that will interface with an updated version of its iTunes jukebox software.
- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)
